Probabilistic reasoning in intelligent systems: networks of plausible inference
Probabilistic reasoning in intelligent systems: networks of plausible inference
Software Size Estimation of Object-Oriented Systems
IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering
A model for measuring information system size
MIS Quarterly
Recent advances in software estimation techniques
ICSE '92 Proceedings of the 14th international conference on Software engineering
By popular demand: Software estimating rules of thumb
Computer - Special issue: neural computing: companion issue to Spring 1996 IEEE Computational Science & Engineering
Software metrics (2nd ed.): a rigorous and practical approach
Software metrics (2nd ed.): a rigorous and practical approach
A field study of scale economies in software maintenance
Management Science - Special issue: Frontier research on information systems and economics
Effort estimation and prediction of object-oriented systems
Journal of Systems and Software
Bayesian Analysis of Empirical Software Engineering Cost Models
IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering
Software metrics: success, failures and new directions
Journal of Systems and Software - Special issue on invited articles on top systems and software engineering scholars
Proceedings of the Conference on The Future of Software Engineering
Some basic determinants of computer programming productivity
Communications of the ACM
A Vector-Based Approach to Software Size Measurement and Effort Estimation
IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering
Software Cost Estimation with Cocomo II with Cdrom
Software Cost Estimation with Cocomo II with Cdrom
Software Engineering: A Practitioner's Approach
Software Engineering: A Practitioner's Approach
Bayesian Networks for Data Mining
Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery
Empirically Guided Software Effort Guesstimation
IEEE Software
Software Measurement: Uncertainty and Causal Modeling
IEEE Software
Data Mining: An Overview from a Database Perspective
IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering
Disaggregating and Calibrating the CASE Tool Variable in COCOMO II
IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering
Learning How to Improve Effort Estimation in Small Software Development Companies
COMPSAC '00 24th International Computer Software and Applications Conference
METRICS '99 Proceedings of the 6th International Symposium on Software Metrics
Making Resource Decisions for Software Projects
Proceedings of the 26th International Conference on Software Engineering
Software cost estimation using economic production models
Journal of Management Information Systems
Journal of Management Information Systems
A review of studies on expert estimation of software development effort
Journal of Systems and Software
Software Effort, Quality, and Cycle Time: A Study of CMM Level 5 Projects
IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering
Computational Statistics & Data Analysis
An empirical analysis of software effort estimation with outlier elimination
Proceedings of the 4th international workshop on Predictor models in software engineering
Tests for consistent measurement of external subjective software quality attributes
Empirical Software Engineering
Time-line based model for software project scheduling with genetic algorithms
Information and Software Technology
An empirical study of the Cobb-Douglas production function properties of software development effort
Information and Software Technology
A defect prediction method for software versioning
Software Quality Control
A study of project selection and feature weighting for analogy based software cost estimation
Journal of Systems and Software
Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
Should we try to measure software quality attributes directly?
Software Quality Control
Improved estimation of software project effort using multiple additive regression trees
Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
How to avoid drastic software process change (using stochastic stability)
ICSE '09 Proceedings of the 31st International Conference on Software Engineering
A study of the non-linear adjustment for analogy based software cost estimation
Empirical Software Engineering
Improved decision-making for software managers using Bayesian networks
SEA '07 Proceedings of the 11th IASTED International Conference on Software Engineering and Applications
Probabilistic estimation of software size and effort
Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
Coping with the cone of uncertainty: an empirical study of the SAIV process model
ICSP'07 Proceedings of the 2007 international conference on Software process
The use of a Bayesian network for web effort estimation
ICWE'07 Proceedings of the 7th international conference on Web engineering
Probabilistic and analytical estimation of software development team size
International Journal of Hybrid Intelligent Systems
Adaptive ridge regression system for software cost estimating on multi-collinear datasets
Journal of Systems and Software
Functional networks as a novel data mining paradigm in forecasting software development efforts
Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
Bayesian reasoning for software testing
Proceedings of the FSE/SDP workshop on Future of software engineering research
A second look at Faster, Better, Cheaper
Innovations in Systems and Software Engineering
Handling missing data in software effort prediction with naive Bayes and EM algorithm
Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Predictive Models in Software Engineering
Systematic literature review of machine learning based software development effort estimation models
Information and Software Technology
Architecture for the use of synergies between knowledge engineering and requirements engineering
CAEPIA'11 Proceedings of the 14th international conference on Advances in artificial intelligence: spanish association for artificial intelligence
COCOMO-U: an extension of COCOMO II for cost estimation with uncertainty
SPW/ProSim'06 Proceedings of the 2006 international conference on Software Process Simulation and Modeling
Multi-variate principal component analysis of software maintenance effort drivers
ICCSA'10 Proceedings of the 2010 international conference on Computational Science and Its Applications - Volume Part II
Fuzzy classification using the data envelopment analysis
Knowledge-Based Systems
Building an expert-based web effort estimation model using bayesian networks
EASE'09 Proceedings of the 13th international conference on Evaluation and Assessment in Software Engineering
Predicting web development effort using a bayesian network
EASE'07 Proceedings of the 11th international conference on Evaluation and Assessment in Software Engineering
Proceedings of the 34th International Conference on Software Engineering
Discretization methods for NBC in effort estimation: an empirical comparison based on ISBSG projects
Proceedings of the ACM-IEEE international symposium on Empirical software engineering and measurement
Towards an early software estimation using log-linear regression and a multilayer perceptron model
Journal of Systems and Software
A distributed problem-solving framework for probabilistic software effort estimation
Expert Systems: The Journal of Knowledge Engineering
Probabilistic size proxy for software effort prediction: A framework
Information and Software Technology
A grammatical evolution approach for software effort estimation
Proceedings of the 15th annual conference on Genetic and evolutionary computation
A model to detect problems on scrum-based software development projects
Proceedings of the 28th Annual ACM Symposium on Applied Computing
On the value of outlier elimination on software effort estimation research
Empirical Software Engineering
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Recently, Bayesian probabilistic models have been used for predicting software development effort. One of the reasons for the interest in the use of Bayesian probabilistic models, when compared to traditional point forecast estimation models, is that Bayesian models provide tools for risk estimation and allow decision-makers to combine historical data with subjective expert estimates. In this paper, we use a Bayesian network model and illustrate how a belief updating procedure can be used to incorporate decision-making risks. We develop a causal model from the literature and, using a data set of 33 real-world software projects, we illustrate how decision-making risks can be incorporated in the Bayesian networks. We compare the predictive performance of the Bayesian model with popular nonparametric neural-network and regression tree forecasting models and show that the Bayesian model is a competitive model for forecasting software development effort.