History-Dependent stochastic petri nets

  • Authors:
  • Helen Schonenberg;Natalia Sidorova;Wil van der Aalst;Kees van Hee

  • Affiliations:
  • Eindhoven University of Technology, Eindhoven, The Netherlands;Eindhoven University of Technology, Eindhoven, The Netherlands;Eindhoven University of Technology, Eindhoven, The Netherlands;Eindhoven University of Technology, Eindhoven, The Netherlands

  • Venue:
  • PSI'09 Proceedings of the 7th international Andrei Ershov Memorial conference on Perspectives of Systems Informatics
  • Year:
  • 2009

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Abstract

Stochastic Petri Nets are a useful and well-known tool for performance analysis. However, an implicit assumption in the different types of Stochastic Petri Nets is the Markov property. It is assumed that a choice in the Petri net only depends on the current state and not on earlier choices. For many real-life processes, choices made in the past can influence choices made later in the process. For example, taking one more iteration in a loop might increase the probability to leave the loop, etc. In this paper, we introduce a novel framework where probability distributions depend not only on the marking of the net, but also on the history of the net. We also describe a number of typical abstraction functions for capturing relevant aspects of the net's history and show how we can discover the probabilistic mechanism from event logs, i.e. real-life observations are used to learn relevant correlations. Finally, we present how our nets can be modelled and simulated using CPN Tools and discuss the results of some simulation experiments.