Varieties of ignorance and the need for well-founded theories
Information Sciences: an International Journal - Special issue on information sciences—past, present, and future
Modelling and visualizing multiple spatial uncertainties
Computers & Geosciences - Special issue on exploratory cartographic visualization
Model and data integration and re-use in environmental decision support systems
Decision Support Systems
Eliciting and analyzing expert judgment: a practical guide
Eliciting and analyzing expert judgment: a practical guide
Glyphs for Visualizing Uncertainty in Vector Fields
IEEE Transactions on Visualization and Computer Graphics
Outlier detection in scatterometer data: neural network approaches
Neural Networks - 2003 Special issue: Neural network analysis of complex scientific data: Astronomy and geosciences
Inverse Problem Theory and Methods for Model Parameter Estimation
Inverse Problem Theory and Methods for Model Parameter Estimation
Service-Oriented Architecture: Concepts, Technology, and Design
Service-Oriented Architecture: Concepts, Technology, and Design
Parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis for a watershed model
Environmental Modelling & Software
An effective screening design for sensitivity analysis of large models
Environmental Modelling & Software
Uncertainty in the environmental modelling process - A framework and guidance
Environmental Modelling & Software
Propagation of positional measurement errors to agricultural field boundaries and associated costs
Computers and Electronics in Agriculture
A probabilistic framework for representing and simulating uncertain environmental variables
International Journal of Geographical Information Science - Special Issue in Honour of the Contribution of Peter Burrough to Geographical Information Science
Environmental Modelling & Software
A new approach to water quality modelling and environmental decision support systems
Environmental Modelling & Software
Coupling integrated Earth System Model components with BFG2
Concurrency and Computation: Practice & Experience
Uncertainty quantification and apportionment in air quality models using the polynomial chaos method
Environmental Modelling & Software
Environmental Modelling & Software
Environmental Modelling & Software
COSIT'09 Proceedings of the 9th international conference on Spatial information theory
Variance-based sensitivity analysis of model outputs using surrogate models
Environmental Modelling & Software
INTAMAP: The design and implementation of an interoperable automated interpolation web service
Computers & Geosciences
Environmental Modelling & Software
Integrated environmental modeling: A vision and roadmap for the future
Environmental Modelling & Software
Environmental model access and interoperability: The GEO Model Web initiative
Environmental Modelling & Software
eHabitat, a multi-purpose Web Processing Service for ecological modeling
Environmental Modelling & Software
Meaningful spatial prediction and aggregation
Environmental Modelling & Software
Short communication: A web-based tool for eliciting probability distributions from experts
Environmental Modelling & Software
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Web-based distributed modelling architectures are gaining increasing recognition as potentially useful tools to build holistic environmental models, combining individual components in complex workflows. However, existing web-based modelling frameworks currently offer no support for managing uncertainty. On the other hand, the rich array of modelling frameworks and simulation tools which support uncertainty propagation in complex and chained models typically lack the benefits of web based solutions such as ready publication, discoverability and easy access. In this article we describe the developments within the UncertWeb project which are designed to provide uncertainty support in the context of the proposed 'Model Web'. We give an overview of uncertainty in modelling, review uncertainty management in existing modelling frameworks and consider the semantic and interoperability issues raised by integrated modelling. We describe the scope and architecture required to support uncertainty management as developed in UncertWeb. This includes tools which support elicitation, aggregation/disaggregation, visualisation and uncertainty/sensitivity analysis. We conclude by highlighting areas that require further research and development in UncertWeb, such as model calibration and inference within complex environmental models.