Opinion formation by voter model with temporal decay dynamics

  • Authors:
  • Masahiro Kimura;Kazumi Saito;Kouzou Ohara;Hiroshi Motoda

  • Affiliations:
  • Department of Electronics and Informatics, Ryukoku University, Otsu, Japan;School of Administration and Informatics, University of Shizuoka, Shizuoka, Japan;Department of Integrated Information Technology, Aoyama Gakuin University, Kanagawa, Japan;Institute of Scientific and Industrial Research, Osaka University, Osaka, Japan

  • Venue:
  • ECML PKDD'12 Proceedings of the 2012 European conference on Machine Learning and Knowledge Discovery in Databases - Volume Part II
  • Year:
  • 2012

Quantified Score

Hi-index 0.00

Visualization

Abstract

Social networks play an important role for spreading information and forming opinions. A variety of voter models have been defined that help analyze how people make decisions based on their neighbors' decisions. In these studies, common practice has been to use the latest decisions in opinion formation process. However, people may decide their opinions by taking account not only of their neighbors' latest opinions, but also of their neighbors' past opinions. To incorporate this effect, we enhance the original voter model and define the temporal decay voter (TDV) model incorporating a temporary decay function with parameters, and propose an efficient method of learning these parameters from the observed opinion diffusion data. We further propose an efficient method of selecting the most appropriate decay function from among the candidate functions each with the optimized parameter values. We adopt three functions as the typical candidates: the exponential decay, the power-law decay, and no decay, and evaluate the proposed method (parameter learning and model selection) through extensive experiments. We, first, experimentally demonstrate, by using synthetic data, the effectiveness of the proposed method, and then we analyze the real opinion diffusion data from a Japanese word-of-mouth communication site for cosmetics using three decay functions above, and show that most opinions conform to the TDV model of the power-law decay function.