The initial transient in steady-state point estimation: contexts, a bibliography, the mse criterion, and the mser statistic

  • Authors:
  • Raghu Pasupathy;Bruce Schmeiser

  • Affiliations:
  • Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA;Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN

  • Venue:
  • Proceedings of the Winter Simulation Conference
  • Year:
  • 2010

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Abstract

The initial transient is an unavoidable issue when estimating parameters of steady-state distributions. We discuss contexts and factors that affect how the initial transient is handled, provide a bibliography (from the system simulation literature), discuss criteria for evaluating initial-transient algorithms, arguing for focusing on the mean squared error (mse). We discuss the MSER statistic, showing that it is asymptotially proportional to the mse and therefore a good foundation for initial-transient algorithms. We suggest two new algorithms (MSER--LLM and MSER--LLM2) for using the MSER statistic and compare them, based on empirical results for M/M/1 and AR(1) data processes, to the original MSER algorithm (MSER--GM).