A framework for input uncertainty analysis

  • Authors:
  • Russell R. Barton;Barry L. Nelson;Wei Xie

  • Affiliations:
  • The Pennsylvania State University, PA;Northwestern University, Evanston, IL;Northwestern University, Evanston, IL

  • Venue:
  • Proceedings of the Winter Simulation Conference
  • Year:
  • 2010

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Abstract

We consider the problem of producing confidence intervals for the mean response of a system represented by a stochastic simulation that is driven by input models that have been estimated from "real-world" data. Therefore, we want the confidence interval to account for both uncertainty about the input models and stochastic noise in the simulation output; standard practice only accounts for the stochastic noise. To achieve this goal we introduce metamodel-assisted bootstrapping, and illustrate its performance relative to other proposals for dealing with input uncertainty on two queueing examples.