Betting boolean-style: a framework for trading in securities based on logical formulas
Proceedings of the 4th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
A dynamic pari-mutuel market for hedging, wagering, and information aggregation
EC '04 Proceedings of the 5th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
Betting Boolean-style: a framework for trading in securities based on logical formulas
Decision Support Systems - Special issue: The fourth ACM conference on electronic commerce
Incentives for expressing opinions in online polls
Proceedings of the 9th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
Subsidized Prediction Markets for Risk Averse Traders
WINE '09 Proceedings of the 5th International Workshop on Internet and Network Economics
Betting Boolean-style: a framework for trading in securities based on logical formulas
Decision Support Systems - Special issue: The fourth ACM conference on electronic commerce
WINE'05 Proceedings of the First international conference on Internet and Network Economics
Hi-index | 0.00 |
We present a novel methodology for predicting future outcomes that uses small numbers of individuals participating in an imperfect information market. By determining their risk attitudes and performing a nonlinear aggregation of their predictions, we are able to assess the probability of the future outcome of an uncertain event and compare it to both the objective probability of its occurrence and the performance of the market as a whole. Experiments show that this nonlinear aggregation mechanism vastly outperforms both the imperfect market and the best of the participants.