Forecasting uncertain events with small groups
Proceedings of the 3rd ACM conference on Electronic Commerce
Extracting collective probabilistic forecasts from web games
Proceedings of the seventh ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery and data mining
Combinatorial Information Market Design
Information Systems Frontiers
Betting boolean-style: a framework for trading in securities based on logical formulas
Proceedings of the 4th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
Information incorporation in online in-Game sports betting markets
Proceedings of the 4th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
The policy analysis market: an electronic commerce application of a combinatorial information market
Proceedings of the 4th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
A strategic model for information markets
Proceedings of the 8th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
Non-myopic strategies in prediction markets
Proceedings of the 9th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
Computational challenges in e-commerce
Communications of the ACM - Rural engineering development
Parimutuel Betting on Permutations
WINE '08 Proceedings of the 4th International Workshop on Internet and Network Economics
Strategies in Dynamic Pari-Mutual Markets
WINE '08 Proceedings of the 4th International Workshop on Internet and Network Economics
Information Market-Based Decision Fusion
Management Science
Prediction Mechanisms That Do Not Incentivize Undesirable Actions
WINE '09 Proceedings of the 5th International Workshop on Internet and Network Economics
Subsidized Prediction Markets for Risk Averse Traders
WINE '09 Proceedings of the 5th International Workshop on Internet and Network Economics
WINE '09 Proceedings of the 5th International Workshop on Internet and Network Economics
Gaming Dynamic Parimutuel Markets
WINE '09 Proceedings of the 5th International Workshop on Internet and Network Economics
Bluffing and strategic reticence in prediction markets
WINE'07 Proceedings of the 3rd international conference on Internet and network economics
Pari-mutuel markets: mechanisms and performance
WINE'07 Proceedings of the 3rd international conference on Internet and network economics
Mechanism design on trust networks
WINE'07 Proceedings of the 3rd international conference on Internet and network economics
Prediction markets, mechanism design, and cooperative game theory
UAI '09 Proceedings of the Twenty-Fifth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence
A new understanding of prediction markets via no-regret learning
Proceedings of the 11th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
Agent based information aggregation markets
Proceedings of the 9th International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems: volume 1 - Volume 1
A case study on using prediction markets as a rich environment for active learning
Computers & Education
An axiomatic characterization of continuous-outcome market makers
WINE'10 Proceedings of the 6th international conference on Internet and network economics
A Unified Framework for Dynamic Prediction Market Design
Operations Research
Proceedings of the 13th ACM Conference on Electronic Commerce
The marketcast method for aggregating prediction market forecasts
SBP'13 Proceedings of the 6th international conference on Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling and Prediction
Efficient Market Making via Convex Optimization, and a Connection to Online Learning
ACM Transactions on Economics and Computation - Special Issue on Algorithmic Game Theory
Cost function market makers for measurable spaces
Proceedings of the fourteenth ACM conference on Electronic commerce
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I develop a new mechanism for risk allocation and information speculation called a dynamic pari-mutuel market (DPM). ADPM acts as hybrid between a pari-mutuel market and a continuous double auction (CDA), inheriting some of the advantages of both. Like a pari-mutuel market, a DPM offers infinite buy-in liquidity and zero risk for the market institution; like a CDA, a DPM cancontinuously react to new information, dynamically incorporate information into prices, and allow traders to lock in gains or limit losses by selling prior to event resolution. The trader interface can be designed to mimic the familiar double auction format with bid-ask queues, though with an addition variable called the payoff per share. The DPM price function can be viewed as an automated market maker always offering to sell at some price, and moving the price appropriately according to demand. Since the mechanism is pari-mutuel (i.e., redistributive), it is guaranteed to pay out exactly the amount of money taken in. Iexplore a number of variations on the basic DPM, analyzing the properties of each, and solving in closed form for their respective price functions.