Modeling information incorporation in markets, with application to detecting and explaining events
UAI'02 Proceedings of the Eighteenth conference on Uncertainty in artificial intelligence
Betting boolean-style: a framework for trading in securities based on logical formulas
Proceedings of the 4th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
Computation in a distributed information market
Proceedings of the 4th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
A dynamic pari-mutuel market for hedging, wagering, and information aggregation
EC '04 Proceedings of the 5th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
Betting Boolean-style: a framework for trading in securities based on logical formulas
Decision Support Systems - Special issue: The fourth ACM conference on electronic commerce
An in-depth analysis of information markets with aggregate uncertainty
Electronic Commerce Research
Computation in a distributed information market
Theoretical Computer Science - Game theory meets theoretical computer science
A strategic model for information markets
Proceedings of the 8th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
Reading the markets: forecasting public opinion of political candidates by news analysis
COLING '08 Proceedings of the 22nd International Conference on Computational Linguistics - Volume 1
Gaming Dynamic Parimutuel Markets
WINE '09 Proceedings of the 5th International Workshop on Internet and Network Economics
Betting Boolean-style: a framework for trading in securities based on logical formulas
Decision Support Systems - Special issue: The fourth ACM conference on electronic commerce
Bluffing and strategic reticence in prediction markets
WINE'07 Proceedings of the 3rd international conference on Internet and network economics
An axiomatic characterization of continuous-outcome market makers
WINE'10 Proceedings of the 6th international conference on Internet and network economics
Decision markets with good incentives
WINE'11 Proceedings of the 7th international conference on Internet and Network Economics
Using a case-based reasoning approach for trading in sports betting markets
Applied Intelligence
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We analyze data from $52$ online in-game sports betting markets (where betting is allowed continuously throughout a game), including 34 markets based on soccer (European football) games from the 2002 World Cup, and 18 basketball games from the 2002 USA National Basketball Association (NBA) championship. We show that prices on average approach the correct outcome over time, and the price dynamics in the markets are closely coupled with game events, agreeing with efficient market assumptions. We also examine qualitative distinctions between the two types of games.