Forecaster diversity and the benefits of combining forecasts
Management Science
Extracting collective probabilistic forecasts from web games
Proceedings of the seventh ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery and data mining
Prediction Markets as Decision Support Systems
Information Systems Frontiers
Combinatorial Information Market Design
Information Systems Frontiers
Computation in a distributed information market
Proceedings of the 4th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
Information incorporation in online in-Game sports betting markets
Proceedings of the 4th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
Internet-Based Virtual Stock Markets for Business Forecasting
Management Science
A multi-agent prediction market based on partially observable stochastic game
Proceedings of the 13th International Conference on Electronic Commerce
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The novel idea of setting up Internet-based virtual markets, information markets, to aggregate dispersed information and predict outcomes of uncertain future events has empirically found its way into many domains. But the theoretical examination of information markets has lagged relative to their implementation and use. This paper proposes a simple theoretical model of information markets to understand their information dynamics. We investigate and provide initial answers to a series of research questions that are important to understanding how information markets work, which are: (1) Does an information market converge to a consensus equilibrium? (2) If yes, how fast is the convergence process? (3) What is the best possible equilibrium of an information market? and (4) Is an information market guaranteed to converge to the best possible equilibrium?