Database models and managerial institution: 50% model + 50% manager
Management Science
Forecaster diversity and the benefits of combining forecasts
Management Science
E-Business and Management Science: Mutual Impacts (Part 1 of 2)
Management Science
Information markets vs. opinion pools: an empirical comparison
Proceedings of the 6th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
Electronic Commerce Research
An in-depth analysis of information markets with aggregate uncertainty
Electronic Commerce Research
Supply chain information sharing in a macro prediction market
Decision Support Systems
Invited Commentary---Motion Pictures: Consumers, Channels, and Intuition
Marketing Science
Weather, Information Security, and Markets
IEEE Security and Privacy
The forecasting ability of Internet-based virtual futures market
Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
Design and Use of Preference Markets for Evaluation of Early Stage Technologies
Journal of Management Information Systems
Prediction Markets as institutional forecasting support systems
Decision Support Systems
Citizen engagement with information aggregation markets
ePart'11 Proceedings of the Third IFIP WG 8.5 international conference on Electronic participation
Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
Co-Creation: Toward a Taxonomy and an Integrated Research Perspective
International Journal of Electronic Commerce
International Journal of Web Based Communities
Reliability (or "lack thereof") of on-line preference revelation: A controlled experimental analysis
Decision Support Systems
A decision support system for stock investment recommendations using collective wisdom
Decision Support Systems
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The application of Internet-based virtual stock markets (VSMs) is an additional approach that can be used to predict short- and medium-term market developments. The basic concept involves bringing a group of participants together via the Internet and allowing them to trade shares of virtual stocks. These stocks represent a bet on the outcome of future market situations, and their value depends on the realization of these market situations. In this process, a VSM elicits and aggregates the assessments of its participants concerning future market developments. The aim of this article is to evaluate the potential use and the different design possibilities as well as the forecast accuracy and performance of VSMs compared to expert predictions for their application to business forecasting. After introducing the basic idea of using VSMs for business forecasting, we discuss the different design possibilities for such VSMs. In three real-world applications, we analyze the feasibility and forecast accuracy of VSMs, compare the performance of VSMs to expert predictions, and propose a new validity test for VSM forecasts. Finally, we draw conclusions and provide suggestions for future research.