Probabilistic reasoning in intelligent systems: networks of plausible inference
Probabilistic reasoning in intelligent systems: networks of plausible inference
Bayesian Networks and Decision Graphs
Bayesian Networks and Decision Graphs
Compact Securities Markets for Pareto Optimal Reallocation of Risk
UAI '00 Proceedings of the 16th Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence
Elicitation of probabilities for belief networks: combining qualitative and quantitative information
UAI'95 Proceedings of the Eleventh conference on Uncertainty in artificial intelligence
Betting boolean-style: a framework for trading in securities based on logical formulas
Proceedings of the 4th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
Computation in a distributed information market
Proceedings of the 4th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
A dynamic pari-mutuel market for hedging, wagering, and information aggregation
EC '04 Proceedings of the 5th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
Betting Boolean-style: a framework for trading in securities based on logical formulas
Decision Support Systems - Special issue: The fourth ACM conference on electronic commerce
An in-depth analysis of information markets with aggregate uncertainty
Electronic Commerce Research
Computation in a distributed information market
Theoretical Computer Science - Game theory meets theoretical computer science
A strategic model for information markets
Proceedings of the 8th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
Proceedings of the 8th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
Algorithms and incentives for robust ranking
SODA '07 Proceedings of the eighteenth annual ACM-SIAM symposium on Discrete algorithms
The influence limiter: provably manipulation-resistant recommender systems
Proceedings of the 2007 ACM conference on Recommender systems
Forecasting market prices in a supply chain game
Proceedings of the 6th international joint conference on Autonomous agents and multiagent systems
ACM SIGecom Exchanges
Pricing combinatorial markets for tournaments
STOC '08 Proceedings of the fortieth annual ACM symposium on Theory of computing
Eliciting properties of probability distributions
Proceedings of the 9th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
Self-financed wagering mechanisms for forecasting
Proceedings of the 9th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
Permutation betting markets: singleton betting with extra information
Proceedings of the 9th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
Complexity of combinatorial market makers
Proceedings of the 9th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
Non-myopic strategies in prediction markets
Proceedings of the 9th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
Parimutuel Betting on Permutations
WINE '08 Proceedings of the 4th International Workshop on Internet and Network Economics
Strategies in Dynamic Pari-Mutual Markets
WINE '08 Proceedings of the 4th International Workshop on Internet and Network Economics
Forecasting market prices in a supply chain game
Electronic Commerce Research and Applications
Information Market-Based Decision Fusion
Management Science
Combinatorial prediction markets for event hierarchies
Proceedings of The 8th International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems - Volume 1
A unified framework for dynamic pari-mutuel information market design
Proceedings of the 10th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
Yoopick: a combinatorial sports prediction market
AAAI'08 Proceedings of the 23rd national conference on Artificial intelligence - Volume 3
Prediction Mechanisms That Do Not Incentivize Undesirable Actions
WINE '09 Proceedings of the 5th International Workshop on Internet and Network Economics
Subsidized Prediction Markets for Risk Averse Traders
WINE '09 Proceedings of the 5th International Workshop on Internet and Network Economics
WINE '09 Proceedings of the 5th International Workshop on Internet and Network Economics
Gaming Dynamic Parimutuel Markets
WINE '09 Proceedings of the 5th International Workshop on Internet and Network Economics
Betting Boolean-style: a framework for trading in securities based on logical formulas
Decision Support Systems - Special issue: The fourth ACM conference on electronic commerce
Bluffing and strategic reticence in prediction markets
WINE'07 Proceedings of the 3rd international conference on Internet and network economics
Pari-mutuel markets: mechanisms and performance
WINE'07 Proceedings of the 3rd international conference on Internet and network economics
Mechanism design on trust networks
WINE'07 Proceedings of the 3rd international conference on Internet and network economics
Prediction markets, mechanism design, and cooperative game theory
UAI '09 Proceedings of the Twenty-Fifth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence
Composition of markets with conflicting incentives
Proceedings of the 11th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
A new understanding of prediction markets via no-regret learning
Proceedings of the 11th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
Information aggregation in smooth markets
Proceedings of the 11th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
Proceedings of the 11th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
Automated market-making in the large: the gates hillman prediction market
Proceedings of the 11th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
A practical liquidity-sensitive automated market maker
Proceedings of the 11th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
Decision rules and decision markets
Proceedings of the 9th International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems: volume 1 - Volume 1
Global budgets for local recommendations
Proceedings of the fourth ACM conference on Recommender systems
A prediction market for toxic assets
AICS'09 Proceedings of the 20th Irish conference on Artificial intelligence and cognitive science
An axiomatic characterization of continuous-outcome market makers
WINE'10 Proceedings of the 6th international conference on Internet and network economics
Connections between markets and learning
ACM SIGecom Exchanges
An optimization-based framework for automated market-making
Proceedings of the 12th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
A Unified Framework for Dynamic Prediction Market Design
Operations Research
Information elicitation for decision making
The 10th International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems - Volume 1
Information market based recommender systems fusion
Proceedings of the 2nd International Workshop on Information Heterogeneity and Fusion in Recommender Systems
Decision markets with good incentives
WINE'11 Proceedings of the 7th international conference on Internet and Network Economics
Liquidity-sensitive automated market makers via homogeneous risk measures
WINE'11 Proceedings of the 7th international conference on Internet and Network Economics
A tractable combinatorial market maker using constraint generation
Proceedings of the 13th ACM Conference on Electronic Commerce
Proceedings of the 13th ACM Conference on Electronic Commerce
An efficient Monte-Carlo algorithm for pricing combinatorial prediction markets for tournaments
IJCAI'11 Proceedings of the Twenty-Second international joint conference on Artificial Intelligence - Volume Volume One
Prediction markets for education: an experimental study
ACM SIGecom Exchanges
The marketcast method for aggregating prediction market forecasts
SBP'13 Proceedings of the 6th international conference on Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling and Prediction
Automated trading in prediction markets
SBP'13 Proceedings of the 6th international conference on Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling and Prediction
Efficient Market Making via Convex Optimization, and a Connection to Online Learning
ACM Transactions on Economics and Computation - Special Issue on Algorithmic Game Theory
An axiomatic characterization of adaptive-liquidity market makers
Proceedings of the fourteenth ACM conference on Electronic commerce
A combinatorial prediction market for the U.S. elections
Proceedings of the fourteenth ACM conference on Electronic commerce
Cost function market makers for measurable spaces
Proceedings of the fourteenth ACM conference on Electronic commerce
A Practical Liquidity-Sensitive Automated Market Maker
ACM Transactions on Economics and Computation
A consensual linear opinion pool
IJCAI'13 Proceedings of the Twenty-Third international joint conference on Artificial Intelligence
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Information markets are markets created to aggregate information. Such markets usually estimate a probability distribution over the values of certain variables, via bets on those values. Combinatorial information markets would aggregate information on the entire joint probability distribution over many variables, by allowing bets on all variable value combinations. To achieve this, we want to overcome the thin market and irrational participation problems that plague standard information markets. Scoring rules avoid these problems, but instead suffer from opinion pooling problems in the thick market case. Market scoring rules avoid all these problems, by becoming automated market makers in the thick market case and simple scoring rules in the thin market case. Logarithmic versions have cost and modularity advantages. After introducing market scoring rules, we consider several design issues, including how to represent variables to support both conditional and unconditional estimates, how to avoid becoming a money pump via errors in calculating probabilities, and how to ensure that users can cover their bets, without needlessly preventing them from using previous bets as collateral for future bets.