Combinatorial Information Market Design
Information Systems Frontiers
A dynamic pari-mutuel market for hedging, wagering, and information aggregation
EC '04 Proceedings of the 5th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
Computation in a distributed information market
Theoretical Computer Science - Game theory meets theoretical computer science
A strategic model for information markets
Proceedings of the 8th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
Non-myopic strategies in prediction markets
Proceedings of the 9th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
Bluffing and strategic reticence in prediction markets
WINE'07 Proceedings of the 3rd international conference on Internet and network economics
Pari-mutuel markets: mechanisms and performance
WINE'07 Proceedings of the 3rd international conference on Internet and network economics
Gaming Dynamic Parimutuel Markets
WINE '09 Proceedings of the 5th International Workshop on Internet and Network Economics
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We present a strategic model for pari-mutual markets by traders using a cumulative utility function. Under this model, we derive guidelines for the traders on how much to buy or sell. Those guidelines can be implemented with three action combinations, called strategies. We prove that those strategies are payoff equivalent for both the involved trader and the others in the current transaction. However, in the long run, their payoffs can be quite different. We show that the buy-only strategy(BOS) achieves the highest market capitalization for the current transaction. In addition, simulation results also prove that BOS always yields the fastest growth of market capitalization even when multiple stages are taken into consideration. Simulation results also show that BOS is a better revelation of the traders' personal beliefs, though it exhibits a higher risk in traders' payoffs.