Combinatorial Information Market Design
Information Systems Frontiers
A dynamic pari-mutuel market for hedging, wagering, and information aggregation
EC '04 Proceedings of the 5th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
Computer
Proceedings of the 8th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
Pricing combinatorial markets for tournaments
STOC '08 Proceedings of the fortieth annual ACM symposium on Theory of computing
Permutation betting markets: singleton betting with extra information
Proceedings of the 9th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
Complexity of combinatorial market makers
Proceedings of the 9th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
Parimutuel Betting on Permutations
WINE '08 Proceedings of the 4th International Workshop on Internet and Network Economics
A unified framework for dynamic pari-mutuel information market design
Proceedings of the 10th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
Yoopick: a combinatorial sports prediction market
AAAI'08 Proceedings of the 23rd national conference on Artificial intelligence - Volume 3
Betting Boolean-style: a framework for trading in securities based on logical formulas
Decision Support Systems - Special issue: The fourth ACM conference on electronic commerce
Pari-mutuel markets: mechanisms and performance
WINE'07 Proceedings of the 3rd international conference on Internet and network economics
A new understanding of prediction markets via no-regret learning
Proceedings of the 11th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
An axiomatic characterization of continuous-outcome market makers
WINE'10 Proceedings of the 6th international conference on Internet and network economics
An optimization-based framework for automated market-making
Proceedings of the 12th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
Efficient Market Making via Convex Optimization, and a Connection to Online Learning
ACM Transactions on Economics and Computation - Special Issue on Algorithmic Game Theory
Cost function market makers for measurable spaces
Proceedings of the fourteenth ACM conference on Electronic commerce
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We study the problem of designing prediction markets for random variables with continuous or countably infinite outcomes on the real line. Our interval betting languages allow traders to bet on any interval of their choice. Both the call market mechanism and two automated market maker mechanisms, logarithmic market scoring rule (LMSR) and dynamic parimutuel markets (DPM), are generalized to handle interval bets on continuous or countably infinite outcomes. We examine problems associated with operating these markets. We show that the auctioneer's order matching problem for interval bets can be solved in polynomial time for call markets. DPM can be generalized to deal with interval bets on both countably infinite and continuous outcomes and remains to have bounded loss. However, in a continuous-outcome DPM, a trader may incur loss even if the true outcome is within her betting interval. The LMSR market maker suffers from unbounded loss for both countably infinite and continuous outcomes.