Combinatorial Information Market Design
Information Systems Frontiers
A dynamic pari-mutuel market for hedging, wagering, and information aggregation
EC '04 Proceedings of the 5th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
Zero-intelligence agents in prediction markets
Proceedings of the 7th international joint conference on Autonomous agents and multiagent systems - Volume 2
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We describe a hybrid forecasting method called marketcast. Marketcasts are based on bid and ask orders from prediction markets, aggregated using techniques associated with survey methods, rather than market matching algorithms. We discuss the process of conversion from market orders to probability estimates, and simple aggregation methods. The performance of marketcasts is compared to a traditional prediction market and a traditional opinion poll. Overall, marketcasts perform approximately as well as prediction markets and opinion poll methods on most questions, and performance is stable across model specifications.