Second workshop on prediction markets
Proceedings of the 8th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
Agent-human interactions in the continuous double auction
IJCAI'01 Proceedings of the 17th international joint conference on Artificial intelligence - Volume 2
Automated market-making in the large: the gates hillman prediction market
Proceedings of the 11th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
When do markets with simple agents fail?
Proceedings of the 9th International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems: volume 1 - Volume 1
Agent-Based modeling of the prediction markets for political elections
MABS'11 Proceedings of the 12th international conference on Multi-Agent-Based Simulation
Rational market making with probabilistic knowledge
Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems - Volume 2
The marketcast method for aggregating prediction market forecasts
SBP'13 Proceedings of the 6th international conference on Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling and Prediction
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We construct a novel agent-based model of prediction markets in which putative human qualities like learning, reasoning, and profit-seeking are absent. We show that the prices which emerge from a market populated by a class of distinctly inhuman agents, Zero-Intelligence agents with diffuse beliefs, replicate the findings of empirical market studies. We use this result to argue against the prevailing descriptive theories of price formation in prediction markets, which have stressed the role of expert, rational participants.