Computation in a distributed information market
Proceedings of the 4th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
The Wisdom of Crowds
Self-financed wagering mechanisms for forecasting
Proceedings of the 9th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
Non-myopic strategies in prediction markets
Proceedings of the 9th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
Zero-intelligence agents in prediction markets
Proceedings of the 7th international joint conference on Autonomous agents and multiagent systems - Volume 2
Information aggregation in dynamic markets with strategic traders
Proceedings of the 10th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
Prediction Mechanisms That Do Not Incentivize Undesirable Actions
WINE '09 Proceedings of the 5th International Workshop on Internet and Network Economics
Bluffing and strategic reticence in prediction markets
WINE'07 Proceedings of the 3rd international conference on Internet and network economics
A practical liquidity-sensitive automated market maker
Proceedings of the 11th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
Liquidity-sensitive automated market makers via homogeneous risk measures
WINE'11 Proceedings of the 7th international conference on Internet and Network Economics
Proceedings of the 13th ACM Conference on Electronic Commerce
Rational market making with probabilistic knowledge
Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems - Volume 2
A Practical Liquidity-Sensitive Automated Market Maker
ACM Transactions on Economics and Computation
| Hi-index | 0.00 |
We consider (prediction) markets where myopic agents sequentially interact with an automated market maker. We show a broad negative result: by varying the order of participation, the market's aggregate prediction can converge to an arbitrary value. In other words, markets may fail to do any meaningful belief aggregation. On the positive side, we show that under a random participation model, steady state prices equal those of the traditional static prediction market model. We discuss applications of our results to the failure of the 1996 Iowa Electronic Market.