Probabilistic reasoning in intelligent systems: networks of plausible inference
Probabilistic reasoning in intelligent systems: networks of plausible inference
Fundamental concepts of qualitative probabilistic networks
Artificial Intelligence
Probabilistic semantics for nonmonotonic reasoning: a survey
Proceedings of the first international conference on Principles of knowledge representation and reasoning
IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence
Conditional Events with Vague Information in Expert Systems
IPMU '90 Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Information Processing and Management of Uncertainty in Knowledge-Based Systems: Uncertainty in Knowledge Bases
Computing probability intervals under independency constraints
UAI '90 Proceedings of the Sixth Annual Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence
Decision making with interval influence diagrams
UAI '90 Proceedings of the Sixth Annual Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence
Qualtitative propagation and scenario-based scheme for exploiting probabilistic reasoning
UAI '90 Proceedings of the Sixth Annual Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence
An Investigation of the Laws of Thought
An Investigation of the Laws of Thought
On the Linear Structure of Betting Criterion and the Checking of Coherence
Annals of Mathematics and Artificial Intelligence
Context-specific sign-propagation in qualitative probabilistic networks
Artificial Intelligence
Combinatorial Information Market Design
Information Systems Frontiers
Building Probabilistic Networks: 'Where Do the Numbers Come From?' Guest Editors' Introduction
IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering
Sensitive Analysis for Threshold Decision Making with Bayesian Belief Networks
AI*IA '99 Proceedings of the 6th Congress of the Italian Association for Artificial Intelligence on Advances in Artificial Intelligence
Probability elicitation for belief networks: issues to consider
The Knowledge Engineering Review
Sensitivity analysis: an aid for belief-network quantification
The Knowledge Engineering Review
Learning probabilistic networks
The Knowledge Engineering Review
Web-Based Knowledge Acquisition to Impute Missing Values for Classification
WI '04 Proceedings of the 2004 IEEE/WIC/ACM International Conference on Web Intelligence
Bringing order into bayesian-network construction
Proceedings of the 3rd international conference on Knowledge capture
Bayesian network modelling through qualitative patterns
Artificial Intelligence
Using Ranked Nodes to Model Qualitative Judgments in Bayesian Networks
IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Data Engineering
CompSysTech '07 Proceedings of the 2007 international conference on Computer systems and technologies
Enhanced qualitative probabilistic networks for resolving trade-offs
Artificial Intelligence
Nearest Neighbour Classification with Monotonicity Constraints
ECML PKDD '08 Proceedings of the 2008 European Conference on Machine Learning and Knowledge Discovery in Databases - Part I
Planning for success: The interdisciplinary approach to building Bayesian models
International Journal of Approximate Reasoning
Learning Bayesian network parameters under incomplete data with domain knowledge
Pattern Recognition
Bayesian network based business information retrieval model
Knowledge and Information Systems
Context-specific sign-propagation in qualitative probabilistic networks
IJCAI'01 Proceedings of the 17th international joint conference on Artificial intelligence - Volume 1
Constraints as data: a new perspective on inferring probabilities
IJCAI'01 Proceedings of the 17th international joint conference on Artificial intelligence - Volume 1
Bayesian network modelling through qualitative patterns
Artificial Intelligence
Warp effects on calculating interval probabilities
International Journal of Approximate Reasoning
Graphical models for imprecise probabilities
International Journal of Approximate Reasoning
Introducing situational signs in qualitative probabilistic networks
International Journal of Approximate Reasoning
Logical inference algorithms and matrix representations for probabilistic conditional independence
UAI '09 Proceedings of the Twenty-Fifth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence
Assessing critical success factors for military decision support
Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
Fusing multiple Bayesian knowledge sources
International Journal of Approximate Reasoning
Monotone instance ranking with MIRA
DS'11 Proceedings of the 14th international conference on Discovery science
WI-IAT '11 Proceedings of the 2011 IEEE/WIC/ACM International Conferences on Web Intelligence and Intelligent Agent Technology - Volume 03
Representing and combining partially specified CPTs
UAI'99 Proceedings of the Fifteenth conference on Uncertainty in artificial intelligence
How to elicit many probabilities
UAI'99 Proceedings of the Fifteenth conference on Uncertainty in artificial intelligence
IPF for discrete chain factor graphs
UAI'02 Proceedings of the Eighteenth conference on Uncertainty in artificial intelligence
Exploiting qualitative knowledge in the learning of conditional probabilities of Bayesian networks
UAI'00 Proceedings of the Sixteenth conference on Uncertainty in artificial intelligence
Measure selection: notions of rationality and representation independence
UAI'98 Proceedings of the Fourteenth conference on Uncertainty in artificial intelligence
Problem-focused incremental elicitation of multi-attribute tility models
UAI'97 Proceedings of the Thirteenth conference on Uncertainty in artificial intelligence
Agent-Based parsimonious decision support paradigm employing bayesian belief networks
DAMAS'05 Proceedings of the 2005 international conference on Defence Applications of Multi-Agent Systems
Upgrading ambiguous signs in QPNs
UAI'03 Proceedings of the Nineteenth conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence
Knowledge acquisition for diagnosis in cellular networks based on bayesian networks
KSEM'06 Proceedings of the First international conference on Knowledge Science, Engineering and Management
An ontology-based approach for constructing Bayesian networks
Data & Knowledge Engineering
Automated interviews on clinical case reports to elicit directed acyclic graphs
Artificial Intelligence in Medicine
A multi-agent intelligent environment for medical knowledge
Artificial Intelligence in Medicine
Importance sampling algorithms for Bayesian networks: Principles and performance
Mathematical and Computer Modelling: An International Journal
Qualitative chain graphs and their application
International Journal of Approximate Reasoning
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Although the usefulness of belief networks for reasoning under uncertainty is widely accepted, obtaining numerical probabilities that they require is still perceived a major obstacle. Often not enough statistical data is available to allow for reliable probability estimation. Available information may not be directly amenable for encoding in the network. Finally, domain experts may be reluctant to provide numerical probabilities. In this paper, we propose a method for elicitation of probabilities from a domain expert that is non-invasive and accommodates whatever probabilistic information the expert is willing to state. We express all available information, whether qualitative or quantitative in nature, in a canonical form consisting of (in) equalities expressing constraints on the hyperspace of possible joint probability distributions. We then use this canonical form to derive second-order probability distributions over the desired probabilities.