Bringing order into bayesian-network construction

Authors:
E. M. Helsper;L. C. van der Gaag;A. J. Feelders;W. L. A. Loeffen;P. L. Geenen;A. R. W. Elbers
Affiliations:
Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands;Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands;Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands;Central Institute for Animal Disease Control, Lelystad, The Netherlands;Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands;Central Institute for Animal Disease Control, Lelystad, The Netherlands
Venue:
Proceedings of the 3rd international conference on Knowledge capture
Year:
2005

Citing 3
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Abstract

Among the tasks involved in building a Bayesian network, obtaining the required probabilities is generally considered the most daunting. Available data collections are often too small to allow for estimating reliable probabilities. Most domain experts, on the other hand, consider assessing the numbers to be quite demanding. Qualitative probabilistic knowledge, however, is provided more easily by experts. We propose a method for obtaining probabilities, that uses qualitative expert knowledge to constrain the probabilities learned from a small data collection. A dedicated elicitation technique is designed to support the acquisition of the qualitative knowledge required for this purpose. We demonstrate the application of our method by quantifying part of a network in the field of classical swine fever.