Communications of the ACM
Web farming for the data warehouse
Web farming for the data warehouse
Efficient identification of Web communities
Proceedings of the sixth ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery and data mining
Hardening soft information sources
Proceedings of the sixth ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery and data mining
IntelliClean: a knowledge-based intelligent data cleaner
Proceedings of the sixth ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery and data mining
Agglomerative clustering of a search engine query log
Proceedings of the sixth ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery and data mining
A Survey of Methods for Scaling Up Inductive Algorithms
Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery
March Madness and the Office Pool
Management Science
Betting boolean-style: a framework for trading in securities based on logical formulas
Proceedings of the 4th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
Computation in a distributed information market
Proceedings of the 4th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
A comparison of two algorithms for multi-unit k-double auctions
ICEC '03 Proceedings of the 5th international conference on Electronic commerce
A dynamic pari-mutuel market for hedging, wagering, and information aggregation
EC '04 Proceedings of the 5th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
Betting Boolean-style: a framework for trading in securities based on logical formulas
Decision Support Systems - Special issue: The fourth ACM conference on electronic commerce
Information markets vs. opinion pools: an empirical comparison
Proceedings of the 6th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
An in-depth analysis of information markets with aggregate uncertainty
Electronic Commerce Research
Computation in a distributed information market
Theoretical Computer Science - Game theory meets theoretical computer science
Incentives for expressing opinions in online polls
Proceedings of the 9th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
Reading the markets: forecasting public opinion of political candidates by news analysis
COLING '08 Proceedings of the 22nd International Conference on Computational Linguistics - Volume 1
Betting Boolean-style: a framework for trading in securities based on logical formulas
Decision Support Systems - Special issue: The fourth ACM conference on electronic commerce
Design and Use of Preference Markets for Evaluation of Early Stage Technologies
Journal of Management Information Systems
Modeling information incorporation in markets, with application to detecting and explaining events
UAI'02 Proceedings of the Eighteenth conference on Uncertainty in artificial intelligence
WINE'05 Proceedings of the First international conference on Internet and Network Economics
Using a case-based reasoning approach for trading in sports betting markets
Applied Intelligence
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Game sites on the World Wide Web draw people from around the world with specialized interests, skills, and knowledge. Data from the games often reflects the players' expertise and will to win. We extract probabilistic forecasts from data obtained from three online games: the Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX), the Foresight Exchange (FX), and the Formula One Pick Six (F1P6) competition. We find that all three yield accurate forecasts of uncertain future events. In particular, prices of so-called "movie stocks" on HSX are good indicators of actual box office returns. Prices of HSX securities in Oscar, Emmy, and Grammy awards correlate well with observed frequencies of winning. FX prices are reliable indicators of future developments in science and technology. Collective predictions from players in the F1 competition serve as good forecasts of true race outcomes. In some cases, forecasts induced from game data are more reliable than expert opinions. We argue that web games naturally attract well-informed and well-motivated players, and thus offer a valuable and oft-overlooked source of high-quality data with significant predictive value.