Probability weighting and utility curvature in QALY-based decision making
Journal of Mathematical Psychology
An in-depth analysis of information markets with aggregate uncertainty
Electronic Commerce Research
Computation in a distributed information market
Theoretical Computer Science - Game theory meets theoretical computer science
Computing correlated equilibria in multi-player games
Journal of the ACM (JACM)
Non-myopic strategies in prediction markets
Proceedings of the 9th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
The effects of market-making on price dynamics
Proceedings of the 7th international joint conference on Autonomous agents and multiagent systems - Volume 2
Bidding Strategies in Agent-Based Continuous Double Auctions
Bidding Strategies in Agent-Based Continuous Double Auctions
Information aggregation in dynamic markets with strategic traders
Proceedings of the 10th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
Dynamic programming for partially observable stochastic games
AAAI'04 Proceedings of the 19th national conference on Artifical intelligence
Information aggregation in smooth markets
Proceedings of the 11th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
Automated market-making in the large: the gates hillman prediction market
Proceedings of the 11th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
A practical liquidity-sensitive automated market maker
Proceedings of the 11th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
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We present a novel, game theoretic representation called POSGI (partially observable stochastic game with information) for distributed information aggregation using a multi-agent based prediction market model. We then describe a correlated equilibrium (CE)-based solution strategy for this game which enables each agent to dynamically calculate the prices at which it should trade a security in the prediction market. We have extended our results to risk averse traders and shown that a Pareto optimal correlated equilibrium strategy can be used to incentively truthful revelations from risk averse agents. Simulation results comparing our CE strategy with five other strategies commonly used in similar markets, with both risk neutral and risk averse agents, show that the CE strategy improves price predictions and provides higher utilities to the agents as compared to other existing strategies.