Hierarchy-of-models approach for aggregated-force attrition

  • Authors:

  • James G. Taylor;Ugur Ziya Yildirim;William S. Murphy, Jr.

  • Affiliations:

  • Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA;Turkish Military Academy (K.H.O.), Bakanliklar, Ankara 06654, TURKEY;Defense Information Systems Agency, Arlington, VA

  • Venue:
  • Proceedings of the 32nd conference on Winter simulation
  • Year:
  • 2000

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Abstract

This paper presents some innovations for overcoming shortcomings in the current state-of-the-art for the hierarchy-of-models approach to modeling aggregated-force attrition in ground-combat models. The basic concept of such an approach for modeling large-scale system behavior is presented, together with the theoretical underpinnings for modeling attrition in large-scale ground combat. The output of an entity-level discrete-event combat simulation is fit to a Lanchester-type aggregated-replay model. Use of a reliable statistical-estimation technique for determining model parameters is emphasized. The main innovation is to show how use of more detailed output data (e.g. line-of-sight (LOS) data) from the high-resolution simulation allows one to develop maximum-likelihood estimates. The methodology is applied to a current high-resolution DoD combat model, and a Lanchester-type aggregated-force replay model is developed.