A lightweight approach to technical risk estimation via probabilistic impact analysis
Proceedings of the 2006 international workshop on Mining software repositories
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A computer simulation model was used as an analysis “tool” for computer system design trade-offs for an on-line interactive command and control system preliminary design study project. Three basic hardware configurations were modelled at the hardware interrupt/byte flow level: a. A Centralized Dual Multiprocessor b. Dual Computers c. A Distributed System of Central and Remote Computers The software of the system was modelled in several modules: a. The Operating System Routines b. The Data Base Management Routines c. Interactive File Maintenance and Query Routines d. Object-Coded Functional Applications Programs e. Support and Control Software Each module consists of parametric descriptions for each corresponding loadable software module (e.g., load module size, re-enterability) and procedural descriptions (e.g., read/write statements, processing statements, calls to system macros and other subroutines). The simulation is conducted in two modes: A fast-forward mode to load-up the system, and an observation mode to collect detailed data. A history tape of the environmental stimuli (interactive operator loads) on the system, produced by a separate “loading model”, enters tasks into the system. The system model is implemented on the IBM 360, Model 65 Computer using a high level computer systems simulation language. The technique developed was so successful that it is now being actively used as a design tool and system performance evaluator, providing a means to minimize the technical risk in the development of all of Litton DSD's major software projects.