A lightweight approach to technical risk estimation via probabilistic impact analysis

  • Authors:
  • Robert J. Walker;Reid Holmes;Ian Hedgeland;Puneet Kapur;Andrew Smith

  • Affiliations:
  • University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada;University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada;University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada;Chartwell Technology Inc., Calgary, Alberta, Canada;Chartwell Technology Inc., Calgary, Alberta, Canada

  • Venue:
  • Proceedings of the 2006 international workshop on Mining software repositories
  • Year:
  • 2006

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Abstract

An evolutionary development approach is increasingly commonplace in industry but presents increased difficulties in risk management, for both technical and organizational reasons. In this context, technical risk is the product of the probability of a technical event and the cost of that event. This paper presents a technique for more objectively assessing and communicating technical risk in an evolutionary development setting that (1) operates atop weakly-estimated knowledge of the changes to be made, (2) analyzes the past change history and current structure of a system to estimate the probability of change propagation, and (3) can be discussed vertically within an organization both with development staff and high-level management. A tool realizing this technique has been developed for the Eclipse IDE.