A Loading-Dependent Model of Probabilistic Cascading Failure
Probability in the Engineering and Informational Sciences
Estimating Failure Propagation In Models Of Cascading Blackouts
Probability in the Engineering and Informational Sciences
The $N-k$ Problem in Power Grids: New Models, Formulations, and Numerical Experiments
SIAM Journal on Optimization
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Electric power transmission systems are a keyinfrastructure and blackouts of these systems have major directand indirect consequences on the economy and nationalsecurity. Analysis of North American Electrical ReliabilityCouncil blackout data suggests the existence of blackout sizedistributions with power tails. This is an indication thatblackout dynamics behave as a complex dynamical system.Here, we investigate how these complex system dynamicsimpact the assessment and mitigation of blackout risk. Themitigation of failures in complex systems needs to beapproached with care. The mitigation efforts can move thesystem to a new dynamic equilibrium while remaining nearcriticality and preserving the power tails. Thus, while theabsolute frequency of disruptions of all sizes may be reduced,the underlying forces can still cause the relative frequency oflarge disruptions to small disruptions to remain the same.Moreover, in some cases, efforts to mitigate small disruptionscan even increase the frequency of large disruptions. Thisoccurs because the large and small disruptions are notindependent but are strongly coupled by the dynamics.