A Loading-Dependent Model of Probabilistic Cascading Failure

Authors:
Ian Dobson;Benjamin A. Carreras;David E. Newman
Affiliations:
Electrical & Computer Engineering Department, University of Wisconsin––Madison, Madison, WI 53706, E-mail: dobson@engr.wisc.edu;Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37831, E-mail: carrerasba@ornl.gov;Physics Department, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK 99775, E-mail: ffden@uaf.edu
Venue:
Probability in the Engineering and Informational Sciences
Year:
2005

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Abstract

We propose an analytically tractable model of loading-dependent cascading failure that captures some of the salient features of large blackouts of electric power transmission systems. This leads to a new application and derivation of the quasibinomial distribution and its generalization to a saturating form with an extended parameter range. The saturating quasibinomial distribution of the number of failed components has a power-law region at a critical loading and a significant probability of total failure at higher loadings.