Metadata and its impact on libraries: Book Reviews
Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology
Automated criminal link analysis based on domain knowledge: Research Articles
Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology
Appraisal of companies with Bayesian networks
International Journal of Business Intelligence and Data Mining
Selective costing voting for bankruptcy prediction
International Journal of Knowledge-based and Intelligent Engineering Systems
Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
Probabilistic Methods for Financial and Marketing Informatics
Probabilistic Methods for Financial and Marketing Informatics
A Data Driven Ensemble Classifier for Credit Scoring Analysis
PAKDD '09 Proceedings of the 13th Pacific-Asia Conference on Advances in Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining
Tuning Data Mining Methods for Cost-Sensitive Regression: A Study in Loan Charge-Off Forecasting
Journal of Management Information Systems
A data driven ensemble classifier for credit scoring analysis
Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
CrimeLink explorer: using domain knowledge to facilitate automated crime association analysis
ISI'03 Proceedings of the 1st NSF/NIJ conference on Intelligence and security informatics
Development of predictive model in education system: using Naïve Bayes classifier
Proceedings of the International Conference & Workshop on Emerging Trends in Technology
An extended tuning method for cost-sensitive regression and forecasting
Decision Support Systems
Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
A logical analysis of banks' financial strength ratings
Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
An optimization-based approach for the design of Bayesian networks
Mathematical and Computer Modelling: An International Journal
Forecasting corporate bankruptcy with an ensemble of classifiers
SETN'12 Proceedings of the 7th Hellenic conference on Artificial Intelligence: theories and applications
The bank loan approval decision from multiple perspectives
Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
Partial Least Square Discriminant Analysis for bankruptcy prediction
Decision Support Systems
When Is the Right Time to Refresh Knowledge Discovered from Data?
Operations Research
Hi-index | 0.02 |
The focus of this research is to demonstrate how probabilistic models may be used to provide early warnings for bank failures. While prior research in the auditing literature has recognized the applicability of a Bayesian belief revision framework for many audit tasks, empirical evidence has suggested that auditors' cognitive decision processes often violate probability axioms. We believe that some of the well-documented cognitive limitations of a human auditor can be compensated by an automated system. In particular, we demonstrate that a formal belief revision scheme can be incorporated into an automated system to provide reliable probability estimates for early warning of bank failures. The automated system examines financial ratios as predictors of a bank's performance and assesses the posterior probability of a banks financial health (alternatively, financial distress). We examine two different probabilistic models, one that is simpler and makes more assumptions, while the other that is somewhat more complex but makes fewer assumptions. We find that both models are able to make accurate predictions with the help of historical data to estimate the required probabilities. In particular, the more complex model is found to be very well calibrated in its probability estimates. We posit that such a model can serve as a useful decision aid to an auditor's judgment process.