Agent-based computational modeling of the stock price-volume relation

  • Authors:
  • Shu-Heng Chen;Chung-Chih Liao

  • Affiliations:
  • Department of Economics, AI-ECON Research Center, National Chengchi University, Taipei 116, Taiwan;Department of International Business, National Taiwan University, Taipei 106, Taiwan

  • Venue:
  • Information Sciences: an International Journal - Special issue: Computational intelligence in economics and finance
  • Year:
  • 2005

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Abstract

From the perspective of the agent-based model of stock markets, this paper examines the possible explanations for the presence of the causal relation between stock returns and trading volume. Using the agent-based approach, we find that the explanation for the presence of the stock price volume relation may be more fundamental. Conventional devices such as information asymmetry, reaction asymmetry, noise traders or tax motives are not explicitly required. In fact, our simulation results show that the stock price volume relation may be regarded as a generic property of a financial market, when it is correctly represented as an evolving decentralized system of autonomous interacting agents. One striking feature of agent-based models is the rich profile of agents' behavior. This paper makes use of the advantage and investigates the micro-macro relations within the market. In particular, we trace the evolution of agents' beliefs and examine their consistency with the observed aggregate market behavior. We argue that a full understanding of the price volume relation cannot be accomplished unless the feedback relation between individual behavior at the bottom and aggregate phenomena at the top is well understood.