The value of simple models in new product forecasting and customer-base analysis: Research Articles

Authors:
Peter S. Fader;Bruce G. S. Hardie
Affiliations:
(Frances and Pei-Yuan Chia Professor of Marketing) The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, 749, Huntsman Hall, 3730 Walnut Street, Philadelphia, U.S.A.;(Associate Professor of Marketing) London Business School, U.K.
Venue:
Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry - Bridging the Gap between Academic Research in Marketing and Practitioners' Concerns
Year:
2005

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Abstract

In this paper, we develop the idea of a ‘simple model’—defined as one that a good business student can build and implement on his/her notebook PC using readily available software. We explore how such models have the potential to bridge the gap between what marketing academics create and what marketing managers seek in a model. We provide specific examples from the areas of new product sales forecasting and customer-base analysis, using spreadsheet-based models that provide good forecasts and insights about actual buyer behaviour. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.