Investigating New Product Diffusion Across Products and Countries
Marketing Science
The Market Evolution and Sales Takeoff of Product Innovations
Management Science
New Product Diffusion Acceleration: Measurement and Analysis
Marketing Science
The value of simple models in new product forecasting and customer-base analysis: Research Articles
Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry - Bridging the Gap between Academic Research in Marketing and Practitioners' Concerns
Research on Innovation: A Review and Agenda for Marketing Science
Marketing Science
Optimal Data Interval for Estimating Advertising Response
Marketing Science
Do Innovations Really Pay Off? Total Stock Market Returns to Innovation
Marketing Science
Phase and amplitude-based clustering for functional data
Computational Statistics & Data Analysis
Editorial---People of Marketing Science
Marketing Science
Journal of Multivariate Analysis
An agent-based modeling framework for integrated pest management dissemination programs
Environmental Modelling & Software
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The Bass model has been a standard for analyzing and predicting the market penetration of new products. We demonstrate the insights to be gained and predictive performance of functional data analysis (FDA), a new class of nonparametric techniques that has shown impressive results within the statistics community, on the market penetration of 760 categories drawn from 21 products and 70 countries. We propose a new model called Functional Regression and compare its performance to several models, including the Classic Bass model, Estimated Means, Last Observation Projection, a Meta-Bass model, and an Augmented Meta-Bass model for predicting eight aspects of market penetration. Results (a) validate the logic of FDA in integrating information across categories, (b) show that Augmented Functional Regression is superior to the above models, and (c) product-specific effects are more important than country-specific effects when predicting penetration of an evolving new product.