The estimates and forecasts of worldwide e-commerce

Authors:
Jianzheng Yang;Guangbin Miao
Affiliations:
Business School of Donghua University, Shanghai, China;Business School of University of Shanghai For Science & Technology, Shanghai, China
Venue:
ICEC '05 Proceedings of the 7th international conference on Electronic commerce
Year:
2005

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Abstract

Estimate and forecast of e-commerce status in the world is an important subject in the development of e-commerce. The development status of e-commerce can be reflected by the Internet users' number and the per capita trade volume on net. On the basis of the data collected extensively and the reference of relevant materials, this paper is to give a forecast of the Internet user number in the coming years using the cubic curve and Logistic curve prediction method, and then to calculate the short-term and long-term forecasts of the value of on-line transactions, which is expected to provide scientific basis for Chinese e-commerce development decision-making.