Time Series Analysis, Forecasting and Control
Time Series Analysis, Forecasting and Control
Local overfitting control via leverages
Neural Computation
Environmental Modelling & Software
Statistical models to assess the health effects and to forecast ground-level ozone
Environmental Modelling & Software
Neural modeling for time series: A statistical stepwise method for weight elimination
IEEE Transactions on Neural Networks
A deterministic air quality forecasting system for Torino urban area, Italy
Environmental Modelling & Software
Environmental Modelling & Software
Non-linear variable selection for artificial neural networks using partial mutual information
Environmental Modelling & Software
Analysis and Prediction of Air Quality Data with the Gamma Classifier
CIARP '08 Proceedings of the 13th Iberoamerican congress on Pattern Recognition: Progress in Pattern Recognition, Image Analysis and Applications
Application of sampling theory to forecast ozone by neural network
ICONIP'12 Proceedings of the 19th international conference on Neural Information Processing - Volume Part IV
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A neural network combined to a neural classifier is used in a real time forecasting of hourly maximum ozone in the centre of France, in an urban atmosphere. This neural model is based on the MultiLayer Perceptron (MLP) structure. The inputs of the statistical network are model output statistics of the weather predictions from the French National Weather Service. These predicted meteorological parameters are very easily available through an air quality network. The lead time used in this forecasting is (t+24)h. Efforts are related to a regularisation method which is based on a Bayesian Information Criterion-like and to the determination of a confidence interval of forecasting. We offer a statistical validation between various statistical models and a deterministic chemistry-transport model. In this experiment, with the final neural network, the ozone peaks are fairly well predicted (in terms of global fit), with an Agreement Index=92%, the Mean Absolute Error=the Root Mean Square Error=15@mgm^-^3 and the Mean Bias Error=5@mgm^-^3, where the European threshold of the hourly ozone is 180@mgm^-^3. To improve the performance of this exceedance forecasting, instead of the previous model, we use a neural classifier with a sigmoid function in the output layer. The output of the network ranges from [0,1] and can be interpreted as the probability of exceedance of the threshold. This model is compared to a classical logistic regression. With this neural classifier, the Success Index of forecasting is 78% whereas it is from 65% to 72% with the classical MLPs. During the validation phase, in the Summer of 2003, six ozone peaks above the threshold were detected. They actually were seven. Finally, the model called NEUROZONE is now used in real time. New data will be introduced in the training data each year, at the end of September. The network will be re-trained and new regression parameters estimated. So, one of the main difficulties in the training phase - namely the low frequency of ozone peaks above the threshold in this region - will be solved.