Comments on "Models and Managers: The Concept of a Decision Calculus"

Authors:
John D. C. Little
Affiliations:
Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02142
Venue:
Management Science
Year:
2004

Citing 5
Cited 7

Prelaunch forecasting of new automobiles

Management Science
DIRECTV: forecasting diffusion of a new technology prior to product launch

Interfaces - Special issue: marketing engineering
Marketing Engineering: Computer-Assisted Marketing Analysis and Planning

Marketing Engineering: Computer-Assisted Marketing Analysis and Planning
Commercial Use of Upc Scanner Data: Industry and Academic Perspectives

Marketing Science
The Success of Marketing Management Support Systems

Marketing Science

Research on Innovation: A Review and Agenda for Marketing Science

Marketing Science
Practice Prize Article-CHAN4CAST: A Multichannel, Multiregion Sales Forecasting Model and Decision Support System for Consumer Packaged Goods

Marketing Science
Visualizing decision process on spheres based on the even swap concept

Decision Support Systems
Active Machine Learning for Consideration Heuristics

Marketing Science
Editorial---The Science-to-Practice Initiative: Getting New Marketing Science Thinking into the Real World

Marketing Science
Practice Prize Paper---PROSAD: A Bidding Decision Support System for Profit Optimizing Search Engine Advertising

Marketing Science
Effective Marketing Science Applications: Insights from the ISMS-MSI Practice Prize Finalist Papers and Projects

Marketing Science

Quantified Score

Hi-index	0.01

Visualization

Abstract

Managerial models for practice have undergone remarkable growth in the past 50 years. My paper on decision calculus, published in 1970, was both a progress report and a prescription for improvement. This commentary describes why I wrote the paper, my perception of why it has been considered influential, and a brief overview of what has happened since. The overview starts by tracing the trends and ideas of the 1960s into the 1970s. The 1970s blend easily into the era of decision support systems (DSS). Starting late in the decade and still continuing, DSSs have evolved rapidly due to an explosion of data, increased computer power, and advances in modeling methods. I review highlights of this evolution from the point of view of managerial models, giving special emphasis to marketing, since that has been my window on this world. The good news is that more managers than ever are using models. The bad news is that many managers do not even realize they are using models! (But we should ask whether this is really bad.) The commentary concludes with thoughts about the future of managerial models. The selection of my paper as one of the most influential in the first 50 years of Management Science was a significant honor for which I am grateful. I take it as an indication by the members of INFORMS of the importance to our field of the issues addressed.