Dynamic Catalog Mailing Policies

  • Authors:
  • Duncan I. Simester;Peng Sun;John N. Tsitsiklis

  • Affiliations:
  • Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139;Fuqua School of Business, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27708;Laboratory for Information and Decision Systems and Operations Research Center, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139

  • Venue:
  • Management Science
  • Year:
  • 2006

Quantified Score

Hi-index 0.01

Visualization

Abstract

Deciding who should receive a mail-order catalog is among the most important decisions that mail-order-catalog firms must address. In practice, the current approach to the problem is invariably myopic: firms send catalogs to customers who they think are most likely to order from that catalog. In doing so, the firms overlook the long-run implications of these decisions. For example, it may be profitable to mail to customers who are unlikely to order immediately if sending the current catalog increases the probability of a future order. We propose a model that allows firms to optimize mailing decisions by addressing the dynamic implications of their decisions. The model is conceptually simple and straightforward to implement. We apply the model to a large sample of historical data provided by a catalog firm and then evaluate its performance in a large-scale field test. The findings offer support for the proposed model but also identify opportunities for further improvement.