Interfaces - Special issue: marketing engineering
Silverscreener: a Modeling Approach to Movie Screens Management
Marketing Science
The Category-Demand Effects of Price Promotions
Marketing Science
A Dynamic Changepoint Model for New Product Sales Forecasting
Marketing Science
Do Promotions Benefit Manufacturers, Retailers, or Both?
Management Science
Who Benefits from Store Brand Entry?
Marketing Science
Planning Marketing-Mix Strategies in the Presence of Interaction Effects
Marketing Science
When Do Price Thresholds Matter in Retail Categories?
Marketing Science
Invited Commentary---Research Opportunities at the Movies
Marketing Science
Invited Commentary---Research and the Motion Picture Industry
Marketing Science
Commentary---Antibusiness Movies and Folk Marketing
Marketing Science
Editorial: Save ResearchAbandon the Case Method of Teaching
Marketing Science
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Understanding the lead-lag relationship between distribution and demand is an important and challenging issue for all marketers. It is particularly challenging in the movie industry, where the very short lifespan and decaying revenue and exhibition patterns of motion pictures means that the associated time series are short and nonstationary, rendering existing econometric methods unreliable. We propose an alternate method that uses state-space diagrams to determine lead-lag relationships. Straightforward to apply and interpret, it takes advantage of the eye's ability to see patterns that algebra-based formulations cannot easily recognize. A number of validation tests are provided to illustrate the usefulness and limitations of the method. We study the weekly data for 231 major movies released in 2000-2001. While econometric methods do not provide consistent results, the graphical method of visually inferred causality clearly shows a pattern that demand leads distribution for most movies. In other words, the dominant industry pattern is one of movie exhibitors monitoring box office sales and then responding with screen allocation decisions. The managerial implications of these findings are discussed.