Forecasting the Number of Changes in Eclipse Using Time Series Analysis

Authors:
Israel Herraiz;Jesus M. Gonzalez-Barahona;Gregorio Robles
Affiliations:
Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, Spain;Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, Spain;Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, Spain
Venue:
MSR '07 Proceedings of the Fourth International Workshop on Mining Software Repositories
Year:
2007

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Abstract

In order to predict the number of changes in the follow- ing months for the project Eclipse, we have applied a statis- tical (non-explanatory) model based on time series analy- sis. We have obtained the monthly number of changes in the CVS repository of Eclipse, using the CVSAnalY tool. The input to our model was the filtered series of the num- ber of changes per month, and the output was the number of changes per month for the next three months. Then we aggregated the results of the three months to obtain the to- tal number of changes in the given period in the challenge.