Software engineering metrics and models
Software engineering metrics and models
Are software cost-estimation models accurate
Information and Software Technology
Estimeetings: Development Estimates and a Front-End Process for a Large Project
IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering
An experimental study of individual subjective effort estimation and combinations of the estimates
Proceedings of the 20th international conference on Software engineering
Bayesian Analysis of Empirical Software Engineering Cost Models
IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering
Combination of software development effort prediction intervals: why, when and how?
SEKE '02 Proceedings of the 14th international conference on Software engineering and knowledge engineering
IT Project Estimation: A Practical Guide to the Costing of Software
IT Project Estimation: A Practical Guide to the Costing of Software
A Review of Surveys on Software Effort Estimation
ISESE '03 Proceedings of the 2003 International Symposium on Empirical Software Engineering
Anchoring and adjustment in software estimation
Proceedings of the 10th European software engineering conference held jointly with 13th ACM SIGSOFT international symposium on Foundations of software engineering
A framework for the analysis of software cost estimation accuracy
Proceedings of the 2006 ACM/IEEE international symposium on Empirical software engineering
The Impact of Irrelevant Information on Estimates of Software Development Effort
ASWEC '07 Proceedings of the 2007 Australian Software Engineering Conference
A review of studies on expert estimation of software development effort
Journal of Systems and Software
Improved estimation of software project effort using multiple additive regression trees
Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
Selection of strategies in judgment-based effort estimation
Journal of Systems and Software
Multi-variate principal component analysis of software maintenance effort drivers
ICCSA'10 Proceedings of the 2010 international conference on Computational Science and Its Applications - Volume Part II
EASE'08 Proceedings of the 12th international conference on Evaluation and Assessment in Software Engineering
On using planning poker for estimating user stories
Journal of Systems and Software
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Expert judgment-based effort estimation of software development work is partly based on non-mechanical and unconscious processes. For this reason, a certain degree of intra-person inconsistency is expected, i.e., the same information presented to the same individual at different occasions sometimes lead to different effort estimates. In this paper, we report from an experiment where seven experienced software professionals estimated the same sixty software development tasks over a period of three months. Six of the sixty tasks were estimated twice. We found a high degree of inconsistency in the software professionals' effort estimates. The mean difference of the effort estimates of the same task by the same estimator was as much as 71%. The correlation between the corresponding estimates was 0.7. Highly inconsistent effort estimates will, on average, be inaccurate and difficult to learn from. It is consequently important to focus estimation process improvement on consistency issues and thereby contribute to reduced budget-overruns, improved time-to-market, and better quality software.