A Multiple-Objective Decision Analysis for Terrorism Protection: Potassium Iodide Distribution in Nuclear Incidents

Authors:
Tianjun Feng;L. Robin Keller
Affiliations:
The Paul Merage School of Business, University of California, Irvine, California 92697-3125;The Paul Merage School of Business, University of California, Irvine, California 92697-3125
Venue:
Decision Analysis
Year:
2006

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Abstract

This paper presents a multiple-objective decision analysis approach to qualitatively and quantitatively evaluate different potassium iodide (KI) distribution plans for a hypothetical local region. We developed this approach for a U.S. National Research Council committee that was charged with figuring out the best means for protecting people against potential thyroid cancer resulting from the release of radioactive iodine from nuclear incidents occurring due to terrorism or accidents. We first identify an objectives hierarchy and then develop the single-attribute value functions and the weights for the objectives using a swing weight method. The identification of the largest value gaps between the status quo and the ideal situation helps to develop potential KI distribution plans. We then use an additive value function to assess the performance of these new alternatives, with the status quo as a benchmark, by computing their overall values. Finally, sensitivity analysis for the KI problem shows how this approach can create more key insights for the improvement of health and safety decision-making processes.