A Novel Nonparametric Regression Ensemble for Rainfall Forecasting Using Particle Swarm Optimization Technique Coupled with Artificial Neural Network

Authors:
Jiansheng Wu;Enhong Chen
Affiliations:
Department of Mathematics and Computer, Liuzhou Teacher College, Guangxi, China;Department of Computer, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, China
Venue:
ISNN 2009 Proceedings of the 6th International Symposium on Neural Networks: Advances in Neural Networks - Part III
Year:
2009

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Abstract

In this study, we propose a novel nonparametric regression (NR) ensemble rainfall forecasting model integrating generalized particle swarm optimization (PSO) with artificial neural network (ANN). First of all, the PSO algorithm is used to evolve neural network architecture and connection weights. The evolved neural network architecture and connection weights are input into a new neural network.The new neural network is trained using back-propagation (BP) algorithm, generating different individual neural network. Then, the principal component analysis (PCA) technology is adopted to extract ensemble members. Finally, the NR is used for nonlinear ensemble model. Empirical results obtained reveal that the prediction by using the NR ensemble model is generally better than those obtained using other models presented in this study in terms of the same evaluation measurements. For illustration and testing reveal that the NR ensemble model proposed can be used as an alternative forecasting tool for a Meteorological application in achieving greater forecasting accuracy and improving prediction quality further.