Scenario analysis using Bayesian networks: A case study in energy sector

  • Authors:
  • Didem Cinar;Gulgun Kayakutlu

  • Affiliations:
  • Department of Industrial Engineering, Istanbul Technical University, Macka 34367, Istanbul, Turkey;Department of Industrial Engineering, Istanbul Technical University, Macka 34367, Istanbul, Turkey

  • Venue:
  • Knowledge-Based Systems
  • Year:
  • 2010

Quantified Score

Hi-index 0.00

Visualization

Abstract

This paper provides a general overview of creating scenarios for energy policies using Bayesian Network (BN) models. BN is a useful tool to analyze the complex structures, which allows observation of the current structure and basic consequences of any strategic change. This research will propose a decision model that will support the researchers in forecasting and scenario analysis fields. The proposed model will be implemented in a case study for Turkey. The choice of the case is based on complexities of a renewable energy resource rich country. Turkey is a heavy energy importer discussing new investments. Domestic resources could be evaluated under different scenarios aiming the sustainability. Achievements of this study will open a new vision for the decision makers in energy sector.