A causal mapping approach to constructing Bayesian networks

Authors:
Sucheta Nadkarni;Prakash P. Shenoy
Affiliations:
Department of Management, College of Business Administration, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE;School of Business, University of Kansas
Venue:
Decision Support Systems
Year:
2004

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Abstract

This paper describes a systematic procedure for constructing Bayesian networks (BNs) from domain knowledge of experts using the causal mapping approach. We outline how causal knowledge of experts can be represented as causal maps, and how the graphical structure of causal maps can be modified to construct Bayes nets. Probability encoding techniques can be used to assess the numerical parameters of the resulting Bayes nets. We illustrate the construction of a Bayes net starting from a causal map of a systems analyst in the context of an information technology application outsourcing decision.