An empirical validation of software cost estimation models
Communications of the ACM
Software runaways: monumental software disasters
Software runaways: monumental software disasters
Introduction to information systems success measurement
Information systems success measurement
Measuring information success at the individual level in cross-cultural environments
Information systems success measurement
A conceptual development of process and outcome user satisfaction
Information systems success measurement
Evolving a new theory of project success
Communications of the ACM
Experimentation in software engineering: an introduction
Experimentation in software engineering: an introduction
Understanding the link between IT project manager skills and project success research in progress
SIGCPR '00 Proceedings of the 2000 ACM SIGCPR conference on Computer personnel research
A replicated assessment and comparison of common software cost modeling techniques
Proceedings of the 22nd international conference on Software engineering
Software developer perceptions about software project failure: a case study
Journal of Systems and Software - Special issue on software engineering education and training for the next millennium
Rapid Development: Taming Wild Software Schedules
Rapid Development: Taming Wild Software Schedules
Software Engineering Economics
Software Engineering Economics
The Mythical Man-Month: Essays on Softw
The Mythical Man-Month: Essays on Softw
Assessing Project Success Using Subjective Evaluation Factors
Software Quality Control
Fear of Trying: The Plight of Rookie Project Managers
IEEE Software
METRICS '01 Proceedings of the 7th International Symposium on Software Metrics
A Survey on Software Estimation in the Norwegian Industry
METRICS '04 Proceedings of the Software Metrics, 10th International Symposium
Australian Software Development: What Software Project Management Practices Lead to Success?
ASWEC '05 Proceedings of the 2005 Australian conference on Software Engineering
What do software practitioners really think about project success: an exploratory study
Journal of Systems and Software
Estimation of project success using Bayesian classifier
Proceedings of the 28th international conference on Software engineering
An introduction to ROC analysis
Pattern Recognition Letters - Special issue: ROC analysis in pattern recognition
Predicting good requirements for in-house development projects
Proceedings of the 2006 ACM/IEEE international symposium on Empirical software engineering
Information and Software Technology
Project Outcome Predictions: Risk Barometer Based on Historical Data
ICGSE '07 Proceedings of the International Conference on Global Software Engineering
Missing Data Imputation Techniques
International Journal of Business Intelligence and Data Mining
What do software practitioners really think about project success: A cross-cultural comparison
Journal of Systems and Software
IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering
Communications of the ACM - Finding the Fun in Computer Science Education
How large are software cost overruns? A review of the 1994 CHAOS report
Information and Software Technology
Predicting software development project outcomes
ICCBR'03 Proceedings of the 5th international conference on Case-based reasoning: Research and Development
Evaluation of three methods to predict project success: a case study
PROFES'05 Proceedings of the 6th international conference on Product Focused Software Process Improvement
The optimization of success probability for software projects using genetic algorithms
Journal of Systems and Software
Perceived causes of software project failures - An analysis of their relationships
Information and Software Technology
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Context: Software has been developed since the 1960s but the success rate of software development projects is still low. During the development of software, the probability of success is affected by various practices or aspects. To date, it is not clear which of these aspects are more important in influencing project outcome. Objective: In this research, we identify aspects which could influence project success, build prediction models based on the aspects using data collected from multiple companies, and then test their performance on data from a single organization. Method: A survey-based empirical investigation was used to examine variables and factors that contribute to project outcome. Variables that were highly correlated to project success were selected and the set of variables was reduced to three factors by using principal components analysis. A logistic regression model was built for both the set of variables and the set of factors, using heterogeneous data collected from two different countries and a variety of organizations. We tested these models by using a homogeneous hold-out dataset from one organization. We used the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to compare the performance of the variable and factor-based models when applied to the homogeneous dataset. Results: We found that using raw variables or factors in the logistic regression models did not make any significant difference in predictive capability. The prediction accuracy of these models is more balanced when the cut-off is set to the ratio of success to failures in the datasets used to build the models. We found that the raw variable and factor-based models predict significantly better than random chance. Conclusion: We conclude that an organization wishing to estimate whether a project will succeed or fail may use a model created from heterogeneous data derived from multiple organizations.