Modeling the temporal evolution of an online cancer forum

  • Authors:
  • Kathleen T. Durant;Alexa T. McCray;Charles Safran

  • Affiliations:
  • Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Boston, MA, USA;Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA, USA;Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Boston, MA, USA

  • Venue:
  • Proceedings of the 1st ACM International Health Informatics Symposium
  • Year:
  • 2010

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Abstract

In this paper, we present a model for temporal analysis of an online discussion group, also known as an online forum. We used a social network model and investigated an online melanoma forum in detail. Our overall goal is to develop methods that quantify the responsiveness of the interactions in online forums. In particular, we are interested in identifying the evolutional stages through which online forums transition. The evolutional stages show if a forum is growing, shrinking, or in a state of equilibrium. In the work we present here, we measured the creation of threads, the creation of responses and the number of new users, as well as the topology of the melanoma network across an eight-year timeframe in order to measure network activity. We defined a response function in terms of the number of threads receiving a response, the number of threads not receiving a response, and the delay in response time. We used the response function as an approximation of the discussion group's utility. We found three distinct evolutional stages over the eight-year period and a range of response levels, in some cases determined by the severity of the disease under discussion. Our findings have implications for both forum owners and members. Each can assess and subsequently adjust the level of online interaction to improve the usefulness of the forum. Further, the assessed activity level of a forum may be useful for online health seekers as they decide whether or not to join a particular forum.