Fuzzy ARIMA model for forecasting the foreign exchange market
Fuzzy Sets and Systems
Time-series forecasting using GA-tuned radial basis functions
Information Sciences—Informatics and Computer Science: An International Journal - Special issue on evolutionary algorithms
Genetic Algorithms in Search, Optimization and Machine Learning
Genetic Algorithms in Search, Optimization and Machine Learning
Non-linear modelling and forecasting of S&P 500 volatility
Mathematics and Computers in Simulation - Selected papers of the MSSANZ/IMACS 13th biennial conference on modelling and simulation, Hamilton, New Zealand, December 1999
A hybrid genetic-neural architecture for stock indexes forecasting
Information Sciences: an International Journal - Special issue: Computational intelligence in economics and finance
An adaptive recurrent fuzzy system for nonlinear identification
Applied Soft Computing
Population variation in genetic programming
Information Sciences: an International Journal
Fuzzy classifier design using genetic algorithms
Pattern Recognition
Adaptive signal processing of asset price dynamics with predictability analysis
Information Sciences: an International Journal
Hybridization of intelligent techniques and ARIMA models for time series prediction
Fuzzy Sets and Systems
Information Sciences: an International Journal
Electric load forecasting using a fuzzy ART&ARTMAP neural network
Applied Soft Computing
Deterministic vector long-term forecasting for fuzzy time series
Fuzzy Sets and Systems
IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems
Fuzzy coefficient volatility (FCV) models with applications
Mathematical and Computer Modelling: An International Journal
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This paper studies volatility forecasting in the financial stock market. In general, stock market volatility is time-varying and exhibits clustering properties. Thus, this paper presents the results of using a fuzzy system method to analyze clustering in generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models. It also uses the adaptive method of recursive least-squares (RLS) to forecast stock market volatility. The fuzzy GARCH model represents a joint estimation method; the membership function parameters together with the GARCH model parameters make this problem of stock market is highly nonlinear and complicated. This study presents an iterative algorithm based on a genetic algorithm (GA) to estimate the parameters of the membership functions and the GARCH models. In this paper, the GA method is employed to identify a global optimal solution with a fast convergence rate in the context of the fuzzy GARCH model estimation problem studied here. Based on simulation results, we determined that both the estimation of in-sample and the forecasting of out-of-sample volatility performance are significantly improved when the GARCH model considers both the clustering effect and the adaptive forecast.