Social Serendipity: Mobilizing Social Software
IEEE Pervasive Computing
Introduction to Data Mining, (First Edition)
Introduction to Data Mining, (First Edition)
Exploiting Surface Features for the Prediction of Podcast Preference
ECIR '09 Proceedings of the 31th European Conference on IR Research on Advances in Information Retrieval
Has Anyone Seen My Goose? Social Network Services in Developing Regions
CSE '09 Proceedings of the 2009 International Conference on Computational Science and Engineering - Volume 04
Predicting the volume of comments on online news stories
Proceedings of the 18th ACM conference on Information and knowledge management
Using a model of social dynamics to predict popularity of news
Proceedings of the 19th international conference on World wide web
Predicting the popularity of online content
Communications of the ACM
Faving Reciprocity in Content Sharing Communities: A Comparative Analysis of Flickr and Twitter
ASONAM '10 Proceedings of the 2010 International Conference on Advances in Social Networks Analysis and Mining
Predicting the Future with Social Media
WI-IAT '10 Proceedings of the 2010 IEEE/WIC/ACM International Conference on Web Intelligence and Intelligent Agent Technology - Volume 01
News comments: exploring, modeling, and online prediction
ECIR'2010 Proceedings of the 32nd European conference on Advances in Information Retrieval
DigiDress: a field trial of an expressive social proximity application
UbiComp'05 Proceedings of the 7th international conference on Ubiquitous Computing
A straw shows which way the wind blows: ranking potentially popular items from early votes
Proceedings of the fifth ACM international conference on Web search and data mining
A peek into the future: predicting the evolution of popularity in user generated content
Proceedings of the sixth ACM international conference on Web search and data mining
Ranking News Articles Based on Popularity Prediction
ASONAM '12 Proceedings of the 2012 International Conference on Advances in Social Networks Analysis and Mining (ASONAM 2012)
Characterizing the life cycle of online news stories using social media reactions
Proceedings of the 17th ACM conference on Computer supported cooperative work & social computing
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Understanding user participation is fundamental in anticipating the popularity of online content. In this paper, we explore how the number of users' comments during a short observation period after publication can be used to predict the expected popularity of articles published by a countrywide online newspaper. We evaluate a simple linear prediction model on a real dataset of hundreds of thousands of articles and several millions of comments collected over a period of four years. Analyzing the accuracy of our proposed model for different values of its basic parameters we provide valuable insights on the potentials and limitations for predicting content popularity based on early user activity.