Mining the network value of customers
Proceedings of the seventh ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery and data mining
Maximizing the spread of influence through a social network
Proceedings of the ninth ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery and data mining
The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More
The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More
The dynamics of viral marketing
ACM Transactions on the Web (TWEB)
Cost-effective outbreak detection in networks
Proceedings of the 13th ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery and data mining
Social Information Processing in News Aggregation
IEEE Internet Computing
Description and Prediction of Slashdot Activity
LA-WEB '07 Proceedings of the 2007 Latin American Web Conference
Identifying the influential bloggers in a community
WSDM '08 Proceedings of the 2008 International Conference on Web Search and Data Mining
Statistical analysis of the social network and discussion threads in slashdot
Proceedings of the 17th international conference on World Wide Web
Strong regularities in online peer production
Proceedings of the 9th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
Analysis of social voting patterns on digg
Proceedings of the first workshop on Online social networks
Power-Law Distributions in Empirical Data
SIAM Review
A review of probabilistic macroscopic models for swarm robotic systems
SAB'04 Proceedings of the 2004 international conference on Swarm Robotics
Measuring message propagation and social influence on Twitter.com
SocInfo'10 Proceedings of the Second international conference on Social informatics
The tube over time: characterizing popularity growth of youtube videos
Proceedings of the fourth ACM international conference on Web search and data mining
Predicting the popularity of online articles based on user comments
Proceedings of the International Conference on Web Intelligence, Mining and Semantics
Boosting video popularity through recommendation systems
Databases and Social Networks
Attention prediction on social media brand pages
Proceedings of the 20th ACM international conference on Information and knowledge management
A straw shows which way the wind blows: ranking potentially popular items from early votes
Proceedings of the fifth ACM international conference on Web search and data mining
Collective attention and the dynamics of group deals
Proceedings of the 21st international conference companion on World Wide Web
Using Stochastic Models to Describe and Predict Social Dynamics of Web Users
ACM Transactions on Intelligent Systems and Technology (TIST)
On the Relationship between Novelty and Popularity of User-Generated Content
ACM Transactions on Intelligent Systems and Technology (TIST)
From user comments to on-line conversations
Proceedings of the 18th ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery and data mining
Predicting aggregate social activities using continuous-time stochastic process
Proceedings of the 21st ACM international conference on Information and knowledge management
A live comparison of methods for personalized article recommendation at forbes.com
ECML PKDD'12 Proceedings of the 2012 European conference on Machine Learning and Knowledge Discovery in Databases - Volume Part II
A significance-driven framework for characterizing and finding evolving patterns of news networks
AICI'12 Proceedings of the 4th international conference on Artificial Intelligence and Computational Intelligence
Using early view patterns to predict the popularity of youtube videos
Proceedings of the sixth ACM international conference on Web search and data mining
On the prediction of popularity of trends and hits for user generated videos
Proceedings of the sixth ACM international conference on Web search and data mining
Ranking News Articles Based on Popularity Prediction
ASONAM '12 Proceedings of the 2012 International Conference on Advances in Social Networks Analysis and Mining (ASONAM 2012)
The Retrieval of Important News Stories by Influence Propagation among Communities and Categories
WI-IAT '12 Proceedings of the The 2012 IEEE/WIC/ACM International Joint Conferences on Web Intelligence and Intelligent Agent Technology - Volume 01
Popularity prediction in microblogging network: a case study on sina weibo
Proceedings of the 22nd international conference on World Wide Web companion
Towards automatic assessment of the social media impact of news content
Proceedings of the 22nd international conference on World Wide Web companion
The self-feeding process: a unifying model for communication dynamics in the web
Proceedings of the 22nd international conference on World Wide Web
Measuring message propagation and social influence on Twitter.com
International Journal of Communication Networks and Distributed Systems
On popularity prediction of videos shared in online social networks
Proceedings of the 22nd ACM international conference on Conference on information & knowledge management
Characterizing the life cycle of online news stories using social media reactions
Proceedings of the 17th ACM conference on Computer supported cooperative work & social computing
Inferring the impacts of social media on crowdfunding
Proceedings of the 7th ACM international conference on Web search and data mining
Box office prediction based on microblog
Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
Generalized multipath planning model for ride-sharing systems
Frontiers of Computer Science: Selected Publications from Chinese Universities
Affinity-driven blog cascade analysis and prediction
Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery
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Popularity of content in social media is unequally distributed, with some items receiving a disproportionate share of attention from users. Predicting which newly-submitted items will become popular is critically important for both companies that host social media sites and their users. Accurate and timely prediction would enable the companies to maximize revenue through differential pricing for access to content or ad placement. Prediction would also give consumers an important tool for filtering the ever-growing amount of content. Predicting popularity of content in social media, however, is challenging due to the complex interactions among content quality, how the social media site chooses to highlight content, and influence among users. While these factors make it difficult to predict popularity a priori, we show that stochastic models of user behavior on these sites allows predicting popularity based on early user reactions to new content. By incorporating aspects of the web site design, such models improve on predictions based on simply extrapolating from the early votes. We validate this claim on the social news portal Digg using a previously-developed model of social voting based on the Digg user interface.