Graphs over time: densification laws, shrinking diameters and possible explanations
Proceedings of the eleventh ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery in data mining
Group formation in large social networks: membership, growth, and evolution
Proceedings of the 12th ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery and data mining
Analysis of topological characteristics of huge online social networking services
Proceedings of the 16th international conference on World Wide Web
An event-based framework for characterizing the evolutionary behavior of interaction graphs
Proceedings of the 13th ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery and data mining
Epidemic thresholds in real networks
ACM Transactions on Information and System Security (TISSEC)
Collaboration over time: characterizing and modeling network evolution
WSDM '08 Proceedings of the 2008 International Conference on Web Search and Data Mining
Microscopic evolution of social networks
Proceedings of the 14th ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery and data mining
Co-evolution of social and affiliation networks
Proceedings of the 15th ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery and data mining
On the evolution of user interaction in Facebook
Proceedings of the 2nd ACM workshop on Online social networks
Using a model of social dynamics to predict popularity of news
Proceedings of the 19th international conference on World wide web
PET: a statistical model for popular events tracking in social communities
Proceedings of the 16th ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery and data mining
Mining interesting link formation rules in social networks
CIKM '10 Proceedings of the 19th ACM international conference on Information and knowledge management
SHRINK: a structural clustering algorithm for detecting hierarchical communities in networks
CIKM '10 Proceedings of the 19th ACM international conference on Information and knowledge management
Discovering Overlapping Groups in Social Media
ICDM '10 Proceedings of the 2010 IEEE International Conference on Data Mining
We know who you followed last summer: inferring social link creation times in twitter
Proceedings of the 20th international conference on World wide web
Like like alike: joint friendship and interest propagation in social networks
Proceedings of the 20th international conference on World wide web
Friendship and mobility: user movement in location-based social networks
Proceedings of the 17th ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery and data mining
Human mobility, social ties, and link prediction
Proceedings of the 17th ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery and data mining
Content based social behavior prediction: a multi-task learning approach
Proceedings of the 20th ACM international conference on Information and knowledge management
When will it happen?: relationship prediction in heterogeneous information networks
Proceedings of the fifth ACM international conference on Web search and data mining
Modeling and predicting behavioral dynamics on the web
Proceedings of the 21st international conference on World Wide Web
Echoes of power: language effects and power differences in social interaction
Proceedings of the 21st international conference on World Wide Web
Predicting user activity level in social networks
Proceedings of the 22nd ACM international conference on Conference on information & knowledge management
Characterizing the life cycle of online news stories using social media reactions
Proceedings of the 17th ACM conference on Computer supported cooperative work & social computing
Box office prediction based on microblog
Expert Systems with Applications: An International Journal
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How to accurately model and predict the future status of social networks has become an important problem in recent years. Conventional solutions to such a problem often employ topological structure of the sociogram, i.e., friendship links. However, they often disregard different levels of activeness of social actors and become insufficient to deal with complex dynamics of user behaviors. In this paper, to address this issue, we first refine the notion of social activity to better describe dynamic user behaviors in social networks. We then propose a Parameterized Social Activity Model (PSAM) using continuous-time stochastic process for predicting aggregate social activities. With social activities evolving over time, PSAM itself also evolves and therefore dynamically captures the real-time characteristics of the current active population. Our experiments using two real social networks (Facebook and CiteSeer) reveal that the proposed PSAM model is effective in simulating social activity evolution and predicting aggregate social activities accurately at different time scales.