The dynamics of viral marketing
ACM Transactions on the Web (TWEB)
Analysis of social voting patterns on digg
Proceedings of the first workshop on Online social networks
Social influence and the diffusion of user-created content
Proceedings of the 10th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
Using a model of social dynamics to predict popularity of news
Proceedings of the 19th international conference on World wide web
Predicting the popularity of online content
Communications of the ACM
Adaptive policies for selecting groupon style chunked reward ads in a stochastic knapsack framework
Proceedings of the 20th international conference on World wide web
Proceedings of the 12th ACM conference on Electronic commerce
Using Stochastic Models to Describe and Predict Social Dynamics of Web Users
ACM Transactions on Intelligent Systems and Technology (TIST)
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We present a study of the group purchasing behavior of daily deals in Groupon and LivingSocial and formulate a predictive dynamic model of collective attention for group buying behavior. Using large data sets from both Groupon and LivingSocial we show how the model is able to predict the success of group deals as a function of time.We find that Groupon deals are easier to predict accurately earlier in the deal lifecycle than LivingSocial deals due to the total number of deal purchases saturating quicker. One possible explanation for this is that the incentive to socially propagate a deal is based on an individual threshold in LivingSocial, whereas in Groupon it is based on a collective threshold which is reached very early. Furthermore, the personal benefit of propagating a deal is greater in LivingSocial.