I tube, you tube, everybody tubes: analyzing the world's largest user generated content video system
Proceedings of the 7th ACM SIGCOMM conference on Internet measurement
A measurement-driven analysis of information propagation in the flickr social network
Proceedings of the 18th international conference on World wide web
Using a model of social dynamics to predict popularity of news
Proceedings of the 19th international conference on World wide web
How useful are your comments?: analyzing and predicting youtube comments and comment ratings
Proceedings of the 19th international conference on World wide web
Predicting the popularity of online content
Communications of the ACM
Diffusion dynamics of games on online social networks
WOSN'10 Proceedings of the 3rd conference on Online social networks
Outtweeting the twitterers - predicting information cascades in microblogs
WOSN'10 Proceedings of the 3rd conference on Online social networks
The impact of YouTube recommendation system on video views
IMC '10 Proceedings of the 10th ACM SIGCOMM conference on Internet measurement
An Approach to Model and Predict the Popularity of Online Contents with Explanatory Factors
WI-IAT '10 Proceedings of the 2010 IEEE/WIC/ACM International Conference on Web Intelligence and Intelligent Agent Technology - Volume 01
On the Use of Reservoir Computing in Popularity Prediction
INTERNET '10 Proceedings of the 2010 2nd International Conference on Evolving Internet
Predicting popular messages in Twitter
Proceedings of the 20th international conference companion on World wide web
Citation count prediction: learning to estimate future citations for literature
Proceedings of the 20th ACM international conference on Information and knowledge management
On word-of-mouth based discovery of the web
Proceedings of the 2011 ACM SIGCOMM conference on Internet measurement conference
The role of social networks in information diffusion
Proceedings of the 21st international conference on World Wide Web
Recommendations to boost content spread in social networks
Proceedings of the 21st international conference on World Wide Web
Video sharing in online social networks: measurement and analysis
Proceedings of the 22nd international workshop on Network and Operating System Support for Digital Audio and Video
Understanding video propagation in online social networks
Proceedings of the 2012 IEEE 20th International Workshop on Quality of Service
Information diffusion and external influence in networks
Proceedings of the 18th ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery and data mining
Optimizing cost and performance for content multihoming
Proceedings of the ACM SIGCOMM 2012 conference on Applications, technologies, architectures, and protocols for computer communication
Propagation-based social-aware replication for social video contents
Proceedings of the 20th ACM international conference on Multimedia
Predicting emerging social conventions in online social networks
Proceedings of the 21st ACM international conference on Information and knowledge management
Using early view patterns to predict the popularity of youtube videos
Proceedings of the sixth ACM international conference on Web search and data mining
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Popularity prediction, with both technological and economic importance, has been extensively studied for conventional video sharing sites (VSSes), where the videos are mainly found via searching, browsing, or related links. Recent statistics however suggest that online social network (OSN) users regularly share video contents from VSSes, which has contributed to a significant portion of the accesses; yet the popularity prediction in this new context remains largely unexplored. In this paper, we present an initial study on the popularity prediction of videos propagated in OSNs along friendship links. We conduct a large-scale measurement and analysis of viewing patterns of videos shared in one of largest OSNs in China, and examine the performance of typical views-based prediction models. We find that they are generally ineffective, if not totally fail, especially when predicting the early peaks and later bursts of accesses, which are common during video propagations in OSNs. To overcome these limits, we track the propagation process of videos shared in a Facebook-like OSN in China, and analyze the user viewing and sharing behaviors. We accordingly develop a novel propagation-based video popularity prediction solution, namely SoVP. Instead of relying solely on the early views for prediction, SoVP considers both the intrinsic attractiveness of a video and the influence from the underlying propagation structure. The effectiveness of SoVP, particularly for predicting the peaks and bursts, have been validated through our trace-driven experiments.