Pedestrian-movement prediction based on mixed Markov-chain model

  • Authors:
  • Akinori Asahara;Kishiko Maruyama;Akiko Sato;Kouichi Seto

  • Affiliations:
  • Hitachi Ltd., Central Research Laboratory, Kokubunji-shi, Tokyo, Japan;Hitachi Ltd., Central Research Laboratory, Kokubunji-shi, Tokyo, Japan;Hitachi Ltd., Central Research Laboratory, Kokubunji-shi, Tokyo, Japan;Hitachi Ltd., Information & Telecommunication Systems, Shinagawa-ku, Tokyo, Japan

  • Venue:
  • Proceedings of the 19th ACM SIGSPATIAL International Conference on Advances in Geographic Information Systems
  • Year:
  • 2011

Quantified Score

Hi-index 0.00

Visualization

Abstract

A method for predicting pedestrian movement on the basis of a mixed Markov-chain model (MMM) is proposed. MMM takes into account a pedestrian's personality as an unobservable parameter. It also takes into account the effects of the pedestrian's previous status. A promotional experiment in a major shopping mall demonstrated that the highest prediction accuracy of the MMM method is 74.4%. In comparison with methods based on a Markov-chain model (MM) and a hidden-Markov model (HMM) (i.e., prediction rates of about 45% and 2%, respectively), the proposed MMM-based prediction method is substantially more accurate. This pedestrian-movement prediction based on MMM using tracking data will make it possible to provide so-called "adaptive mobile services" with proactive functions.